Don't rely on bloviating pundits to tell you who'll prevail on Hollywood's big night. The Huffington Post crunched the stats on every Oscar nominee of the past 30 years to produce a scientific metric for predicting the winners at the 2013 Academy Awards.
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Key Dates
Thursday, Jan. 10 | Nominees announced |
Sunday, Jan. 13 | Golden Globes |
Friday, Feb. 8 | Final voting begins |
Sunday, Feb. 24 | Oscar night |
Best Picture
Box Office Gross |
Audience Rating | Critical Rating |
Other Awards |
Oscar Nominations |
Chance of Winning |
||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Argo | $128 M | ●●●● | ●●●●● ●● |
92.7% | |||
Lincoln | $177 M | ●●●●● ●●●●● ●●● |
6.3% | ||||
Silver Linings Playbook | $103 M | ●●●●● ●●● |
0.5% | ||||
Life Of Pi | $112 M | ●●●●● ●●●●● ●● |
0.2% | ||||
Les Miserables | $146 M | ●●●●● ●●●● |
0.1% | ||||
Zero Dark Thirty | $90 M | ●● | ●●●●● |
0.1% | |||
Amour | $4 M | ●● | ●●●●● ● |
0.0% | |||
Beasts Of The Southern Wild | $12 M | ●●●● | 0.0% | ||||
Django Unchained | $158 M | ●●●●● |
0.0% |
What the Numbers Mean
Best Actor
Hugh Jackman may have picked the wrong year to give the performance of his career. If Daniel Day-Lewis wins, as every sentient being expects he will, he will be the proud owner of three Academy Award statuettes for Best Actor.
Chance of winning |
||
---|---|---|
99.6% | ||
0.2% | ||
0.1% | ||
0.1% | ||
0.0% |
Best Actress
"Silver Linings Playbook" wasn't even Jennifer Lawrence's most popular movie this year — that would be "The Hunger Games" — but her endearing performance as an eccentric young widow has her team expecting gold.
Chance of winning |
||
---|---|---|
73.7% | ||
22.5% | ||
3.6% | ||
0.1% | ||
0.1% |
Best Supporting Actor
Will the "Lincoln" juggernaut lift Tommy Lee Jones to victory, or will Philip Seymour Hoffman see to it that fallen favorite "The Master" doesn't go home empty handed?
Chance of winning |
||
---|---|---|
46.1% | ||
40.6% | ||
11.8% | ||
1.3% | ||
0.2% |
Best Supporting Actress
Anne Hathaway dreamed a dream that she'd win an Oscar for her performance as Fantine in "Les Misérables," and chances are very good indeed that it will come true. Don't worry, Sally Field, we still like you.
Chance of winning |
||
---|---|---|
99.4% | ||
0.5% | ||
0.1% | ||
0.0% | ||
0.0% |
Best Director
Steven Spielberg, a seven-time nominee and two-time winner in this category, will be tough to beat, but Ang Lee and David O. Russell will certainly try, with help from the publicity machines at Fox and The Weinstein Company, respectively.
Chance of winning |
||
---|---|---|
77.6% | ||
21.1% | ||
0.8% | ||
0.4% | ||
0.0% |
Best Animated Feature Film
Wreck-It Ralph | 56.9% |
Brave | 39.4% |
Frankenweenie | 3.5% |
Paranorman | 0.1% |
The Pirates! Band Of Misfits | 0.1% |
Best Production Design
Les Miserables | 53.5% |
Anna Karenina | 33.8% |
Life Of Pi | 6.4% |
Lincoln | 6.2% |
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey | 0.1% |
Best Cinematography
Life Of Pi | 96.7% |
Skyfall | 3.2% |
Lincoln | 0.1% |
Anna Karenina | 0.0% |
Django Unchained | 0.0% |
Best Costume Design
Anna Karenina | 82.9% |
Les Miserables | 16.9% |
Mirror Mirror | 0.2% |
Lincoln | 0.0% |
Snow White And The Huntsman | 0.0% |
Best Documentary
Searching For Sugar Man | 98.7% |
How to Survive a Plague | 0.7% |
The Gatekeepers | 0.5% |
5 Broken Cameras | 0.1% |
The Invisible War | 0.0% |
Best Documentary (Short)
Open Heart | 76.8% |
Inocente | 18.7% |
Mondays at Racine | 4.3% |
Kings Point | 0.2% |
Redemption | 0.0% |
Best Film Editing
Argo | 81.5% |
Zero Dark Thirty | 17.9% |
Silver Linings Playbook | 0.4% |
Life Of Pi | 0.1% |
Lincoln | 0.1% |
Best Foreign Film
Amour | 99.7% |
A Royal Affair | 0.2% |
Kon-Tiki | 0.1% |
No | 0.0% |
War Witch | 0.0% |
Best Makeup
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey | 64.0% |
Les Miserables | 35.8% |
Hitchcock | 0.2% |
Best Original Score
Life Of Pi | 82.3% |
Lincoln | 14.1% |
Skyfall | 2.9% |
Argo | 0.4% |
Anna Karenina | 0.2% |
Best Original Song
Skyfall | 99.4% |
Ted | 0.5% |
Les Miserables | 0.1% |
Chasing Ice | 0.0% |
Life Of Pi | 0.0% |
Best Short Film (Animated)
Paperman | 70.4% |
Adam and Dog | 7.4% |
Fresh Guacamole | 7.4% |
Head over Heels | 7.4% |
The Longest Daycare | 7.4% |
Best Short Film (Live Action)
Curfew | 33.3% |
Asad | 16.7% |
Buzkashi Boys | 16.7% |
Death of a Shadow | 16.7% |
Henry | 16.7% |
Best Sound Editing
Zero Dark Thirty | 50.9% |
Life Of Pi | 25.3% |
Skyfall | 13.8% |
Argo | 9.9% |
Django Unchained | 0.1% |
Best Sound Mixing
Les Miserables | 97.9% |
Skyfall | 1.3% |
Life Of Pi | 0.4% |
Argo | 0.3% |
Lincoln | 0.1% |
Best Visual Effects
Life Of Pi | 99.7% |
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey | 0.3% |
Marvel's The Avengers | 0.0% |
Prometheus | 0.0% |
Snow White And The Huntsman | 0.0% |
Best Adapted Screenplay
Argo | 70.5% |
Lincoln | 25.0% |
Silver Linings Playbook | 4.3% |
Life Of Pi | 0.2% |
Beasts Of The Southern Wild | 0.0% |
Best Original Screenplay
Django Unchained | 58.5% |
Amour | 23.9% |
Zero Dark Thirty | 17.4% |
Moonrise Kingdom | 0.1% |
Flight | 0.0% |
By Aaron Bycoffe, Andrei Scheinkman and Michael Hogan. Statistical analysis by David Rothschild. Last updated Sunday, Feb. 24, 2013, 8:24 pm EST. Arrows indicate change over the past week.
Sources: Box Office Mojo, Rotten Tomatoes, Metacritic, Intrade, Betfair, Hollywood Stock Exchange. Image credits: AP, Getty Images.