Majority favor capping number of marijuana dispensaries in L.A.
Contact: Suzanne Wu at suzanne.wu@usc.edu or (213) 503-3410; Merrill Balassone at balasson@usc.edu or (213) 509-7805
LOS ANGELES – May 17, 2013 – With the election just days away to decide Los Angeles’ next mayor, Eric Garcetti leads Wendy Greuel by 7 points, according to results of a new USC Sol Price School of Public Policy/LA Times Los Angeles City Election Poll.
Los Angeles voters go to the polls on Tuesday, May 21, to decide the city's next mayor. In the latest poll, conducted May 14-16, L.A. City Council member Garcetti is favored by 48 percent of voters compared to 41 percent for City Controller Greuel. Eleven percent of voters are undecided.
This represents a slight narrowing of the race since the last USC Price/LATimes Poll, conducted April 15-17, when 50 percent of voters supported Garcetti compared to 40 percent for Greuel.
Among people who said they have already voted by mail-in absentee ballot, Garcetti leads with 48 percent of the vote compared to 42 percent for Greuel. Nineteen percent of voters said they planned to vote by mail, and 80 percent said they would vote at the polls on election day.
The USC Price/LA Times Poll projects a turnout of about 25 percent in Tuesday's city election, slightly higher than turnout in the primary election in March. The pre-primary USC Price/LA Times Poll conducted in Feb. 2013 showed Garcetti leading Greuel by 2 points with 13 percent of voters undecided; in the actual primary results, Garcetti led Greuel by 4 points.
“While these numbers are certainly very good news for Garcetti, the likely low turnout coupled with the high number of undecided voters and soft support on both sides means that this race is certainly not over,” said Dan Schnur, director of the USC Price/LA Times Poll.
"This campaign has turned into a referendum on Wendy Greuel and more specifically her support from public employee unions," Schnur said. "The overriding challenge for Greuel continues to be to convince voters that her support from the public employees does not make her beholden to them."
Despite Greuel’s historic bid to become L.A.’s first female mayor, she still does not have an advantage among women, the poll showed. Forty-seven percent of female voters back Garcetti and 43 percent support Greuel. Men backed Garcetti over Greuel, 49 percent to 38 percent.
But Greuel has made strides among younger women, with 52 percent support among women under the age of 50 compared to 41 percent support for Garcetti among young women. Among older women, Garcetti leads Greuel 51-38.
Gender was the top reason given when voters were asked about their support of Greuel. Among Greuel supporters, 13 percent said they are voting for her because she is a woman and “we need a female mayor.” Four percent of those backing Greuel said “union support” was their main reason for supporting her, the poll found.
Greuel’s overwhelming fundraising advantage among unions does not appear to have given her an edge among union households: more than half (51 percent) of union households support Garcetti, compared to 39 percent for Greuel. Among non-union households, Garcetti leads Greuel 48-41.
Garcetti leads Greuel by a 21-point margin among conservative voters with 54 percent of the conservative vote, as compared to 33 percent for Greuel. Among moderate and liberal voters, his lead is in the single digits: Garcetti leads Greuel 45-44 among moderates, and his lead is 50-43 among liberals.
“Greuel is making big gains with younger women and left-leaning voters in general, but she's really bleeding among Conservatives. By painting Greuel with the union brush, Garcetti has undercut what should have been a natural strength for Greuel with Republicans on waste and fraud,” said Amy Levin, vice president of Democratic polling firm Benenson Strategy Group, which conducted the poll with Republican polling firm M4 Strategies on behalf of the USC Price School of Public Policy and the Los Angeles Times. "He has animated that segment of the population against her. They are voting for Garcetti since they don't want to see Greuel win."
A full 25 percent of Garcetti supporters indicated their concerns about Greuel as the reason for their vote.
With the endorsement of Kevin James, the lone Republican in the mayoral primary, Garcetti has 57 percent of Republican voters compared to 35 percent for Greuel. Among independents, Garcetti leads Greuel 46-36. Among Democrats, Garcetti leads Greuel 46-44.
Regionally, Greuel is behind in all areas of the city including a tight race on her home turf, the San Fernando Valley, where Garcetti leads 47-44. In April, Greuel had a slight advantage in the Valley leading Garcetti 45-43, according to the USC Price/LA Times Poll.
“While the numbers haven't changed much, the demographics within them have. This is a testament to the fact that negative campaigning is having an effect,” said Chris St. Hilaire, chief executive officer of Republican polling firm M4 Strategies. "Those negative attacks have pushed support over to Garcetti."
Forty-nine percent of voters on L.A.’s Westside support Garcetti compared to Greuel’s 40 percent. In South Los Angeles, Garcetti holds a five-point advantage over Greuel, 41-35. In Central L.A., where Garcetti represents the Hollywood/Silver Lake communities, he leads Greuel 52-41.
Garcetti leads Greuel among white voters (51-40), among Latinos (53-40) and among young voters (50-40). Among black voters, Greuel leads with 48 percent support compared to 25 percent for Garcetti.
"The high level of undecided votes among African American voters means that a strong get-out-the-vote effort in those communities can have a real impact as to whether Maxine Waters, Tom Bradley and Bill Clinton have the opportunity to make a difference for Greuel," Schnur said. Both Congresswoman Waters and President Clinton have endorsed Greuel, who served as deputy for Mayor Bradley, the first African American mayor of Los Angeles.
In the race for Los Angeles city attorney, the USC Price/LA Times Poll shows assembly member Mike Feuer leading incumbent Carmen Trutanich, 42 percent to 24 percent.
In the race for Los Angeles city controller, L.A. City Council member Dennis Zine has a slight lead over attorney Ron Galperin, 31 percent to 28 percent.
Majority favor limits on medical marijuana dispensaries
Nearly two-thirds (61 percent) of voters favor more regulation of the city’s medical marijuana dispensaries, compared to 13 percent who opt for less regulation and 19 percent who say regulation should stay the same.
And a majority of voters support the ideas behind two measures on Tuesday's ballot seeking to regulate the city’s dispensaries.
Fifty-five percent of voters favor the limits set forth by Proposition D, a ballot measure that would cap the number of medical marijuana dispensaries in Los Angeles at 135 – the number of clinics operating in the city prior to the September 2007 moratorium imposed by the City Council.
Thirty-five percent of voters said no limits should be put on the number of Los Angeles dispensaries, so long as each dispensary operates within legal limits – such as employee background checks and not dispensing to minors – to ensure patients in pain can "get the prescriptions they need.”
Fifty-four percent of voters want to raise taxes by 20 percent on medical marijuana dispensaries, a proposal put forth in the competing ballot measure Ordinance F. Thirty-three percent oppose increasing taxes on dispensaries and 13 percent said they “didn’t know.”
Angelenos want investments in public transit over highways
When asked where policymakers should focus transportation spending, 49 percent of voters said money should be invested in public transit such as buses, rail and subways, as opposed to 35 percent who said money should go to roads and freeways. Twelve percent said policymakers should focus on both.
Voters named traffic congestion as L.A.’s most serious transportation problem (39 percent), followed by a lack of public transportation (27 percent) and the poor condition of streets (20 percent).
Sixty-five percent said they had not used a mode of public transportation in Los Angeles within the last month, and 35 percent of voters said they had used L.A.’s buses, trains or subways during that time.
Overall, 25 percent used the bus, 17 percent used a subway, trolley or light rail and 14 percent traveled via train in the past month. Of those who had used public transportation, 36 percent used it at least once per week and 62 percent used it less than weekly.
Only 13 percent of voters who used public transit said they used it “mostly to work,” with 57 percent saying they “mostly go somewhere else.” Twenty-seven percent of voters using public transit said they use it equally for work and other trips.
Among those who had not used public transit within the last month, 26 percent of voters said they avoided Los Angeles’ public transit because they preferred driving, walking or biking; 17 percent said public transit didn’t take them where they wanted to go; 15 percent said they don’t use public transit because they don’t need to leave their neighborhoods; and 8 percent said public transit time schedules are “not convenient.”
Voters were equally split when asked if they support expansion of "HOT lanes" such as those on the 110 freeway, which are free for carpool drivers but can be accessed by solo motorists for a fee. Forty-seven percent said they support expanding these lanes to other freeways and the same percentage oppose expanding them.
But 58 percent said they would not be willing to pay the extra fees – which range from $2.75 to $15.40 for the full 11-mile stretch depending on traffic – even if the lanes would significantly cut down on their commute time. Thirty-five percent of voters said they would pay for the lanes if they shortened the commute time significantly.
"There seems to be a conflict between support of public transit policies and the implication for action," said Raphael Bostic, director of the USC Bedrosian Center and Bedrosian Chair in Governance and the Public Enterprise at the USC Price School. "The results are striking in that there's a good deal of support for investment in 'HOT lanes' and public transit, but when asked if voters would change their behaviors, the results were less affirming."
The USC Price/LA Times Poll was conducted May 14-16, 2013, by M4 Strategies and Benenson Strategy Group on behalf of the USC Price School of Public Policy and the Los Angeles Times. The full sample of 500 likely voters carries a margin-of-error of +/- 4.4 percentage points.
Poll results and methodology are available here:
http://www.bsgco.com/index.php?do=get_page&pageID=93
WEBSITE: priceschool.usc.edu/poll/
TWITTER: @USCPricePolling
About the USC Sol Price School of Public Policy/Los Angeles Times City Election Poll
The USC Sol Price School of Public Policy/Los Angeles Times City Election Poll is a public polling initiative to survey voters during the critical 2013 mayoral campaign in Los Angeles. The project aims to inform the public, stimulate discourse and contribute to the USC Price School’s ongoing research and educational mission of improving the quality of life for people and their communities.
The poll is also supported by the USC Schwarzenegger Institute for State and Global Policy as well as the Judith and John Bedrosian Center on Governance and the Public Enterprise.
About the USC Sol Price School of Public Policy
The USC Sol Price School of Public Policy, established in 1929, is one of the premier schools of its kind in the nation. Through a time-honored commitment to public service, a legacy of strong connections to professional leaders and a world-renowned research portfolio, the school’s faculty, students and alumni work to improve the quality of life for people and their communities worldwide. The USC Sol Price School of Public Policy is at the forefront of research and teaching on today’s major issues, including: housing and real estate markets, environmental sustainability, health care, economic development, transportation and infrastructure, governance and leadership, nonprofits and philanthropy, civic engagement, immigration and the impact of terrorism.
About the Los Angeles Times
The Los Angeles Times is the largest metropolitan daily newspaper in the country, with a daily readership of 2 million and 3 million on Sunday, and a combined print and interactive local weekly audience of 4.5 million. The fast-growing latimes.com draws over 10 million unique visitors monthly.
