John Kasich at Politics & Eggs
A Quinnipiac University Poll asked voters in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania who they would favor in a presidential primary. John Kasich was the leader in Ohio, but no candidate was a front runner in all three states. Here Kasich chats with audience members before a recent speech in the early primary state of New Hampshire.
(Henry J. Gomez, Northeast Ohio Media Group)
COLUMBUS, Ohio -- Polling in three key swing states found that no potential candidate for president is a clear front runner among Republican voters, with Gov. John Kasich leading in Ohio, former Gov. Jeb Bush leading in his home state and Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker up in Pennsylvania.
The Quinnipiac University Poll, released Thursday, showed no candidate has staked out a strong lead position. While Kasich and Bush topped a list of potential candidates in their home states, neither registered support from 25 percent of Republicans. And in Pennsylvania, the Republican results were widely split, with Walker leading at 14 percent.
Walker finished second in both Florida and Ohio.
In each state, a significant number of Republicans said they didn't know who they'd favor. In Ohio and Florida, it was the No. 2 answer. In Pennsylvania, it led the pack at 18 percent.
"Gov. Scott Walker continues to be the surprise in the early part of the 2016 campaign," Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac Poll, said in a statement. "We've got a long way to go till Iowans caucus next winter, but the Wisconsin governor has climbed into the first tier of contenders along with establishment favorite Jeb Bush, who can't be happy with his numbers today,"
Among Democrats, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton remains the strong favorite in all three states, pulling a majority of support in Florida and Ohio, and nearly 50 percent in Pennsylvania.
And despite controversy over her use of a personal email account while secretary of state, her favorability ratings are strong in all three states.
"On the Democratic side Secretary Clinton's commanding lead for the nomination is only slightly less commanding, apparently due to the news media focus on questions about her email and foreign government donations to her family foundation," Brown said. "But Democratic primary voters still consider her a demi-god and those who think she is beatable in a nomination fight caucus in phone booths."
Quinnipiac polled registered voters in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania from March 17 to 28, asking whom they favored in their own party's primary. In each state, more than 1,000 people participated in the poll. Overall margins of error for each were plus or minus 3 percentage points.
On the Republican side, voters were asked to choose from Bush, retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham, former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal, Kasich, Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul, former Texas Gov. Rick Perry, Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum, and Walker.
All in the group are believed to be considering a presidential run. Cruz, though, is the only candidate who actually has declared his candidacy.
For his part, Kasich has made recent trips to early primary states New Hampshire and South Carolina, but continues to say he has not decided if he will be a candidate.
Democratic voters were asked to choose from Clinton, Vice President Joe Biden, former Maryland Gov. Martin O'Malley, Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren and former Virginia Sen. Jim Webb.
None have formally announced candidacies.
In Ohio, 20 percent of Republicans said they would favor Kasich. He was followed by Walker, Cruz and Huckabee at 9 percent each, Bush at 8 percent (compared to 10 percent February 4), and Carson at 8 percent.
With Bush removed from the questions, Kasich pulled 22 percent. Walker climbed to 10 percent while Cruz and Huckabee each remained at 9 percent.
With Walker out, Kasich remained at 22 percent, with 11 percent for Cruz and 9 percent each for Bush, Huckabee and Carson.
"Gov. John Kasich's decision about whether to join the presidential campaign at least for now is the big unknown in the Buckeye State," Brown said. "If he runs, he would be the early leader at home, although his appeal in other states is yet to be shown."
In Florida, Kasich pulled support from 1 percent of Republicans. Two percent of Republicans in Pennsylvania said they would back him.
Fifty-four percent backed Clinton, with Warren at 14 percent and Biden at 9 percent. With Clinton removed from the options, Biden pulled 34 percent, with 25 percent for Warren.
In Florida, Bush led with 24 percent (down from 32 percent in a Feb. 4 Quinnipiac University poll), Walker pulled 15 percent and Rubio pulled 12 percent.
Clinton was far ahead among Democrats with 65 percent.
In Pennsylvania, Walker led candidates with 14 percent. Bush, Carson and Santorum each pulled 9 percent.
Clinton was favored by 48 percent of Democrats and led the rest of the pack by more than 30 points.
Candidate FL OH PA
Bush 24% 8% 9%
Carson 8 8 9
Christie 1 5 5
Cruz 7 9 7
Graham - - -
Huckabee 6 9 6
Jindal - 1 1
Kasich 1 20 2
Paul 4 7 6
Perry 2 1 3
Rubio 12 5 7
Santorum - 1 9
Walker 15 9 14
Someone else 3 1 -
Wouldn't vote 1 1 4
Don't know 15 15 18