After a four week absence, Aaron returns to the show to discuss the current state of the Middle East and related nonproliferation challenges/concerns. The wide ranging conversation touches on the prevailing stability-instability paradox, the Saudi Air War in Yemen, Scud hunting difficulties, the proliferation of ballistic missiles in the Gulf, and why the Saudis can probably build a Bomb – but won’t because most states don’t choose build nuclear weapons.
It also wades into the mess in Syria and sorts through the concerns about the Islamic State’s overrunning of Syrian nuclear sites, and whether or not Bashar al Assad stashed fuel rods in Hezbollahstan
Sorry, Fareed: Saudi Arabia Can Build a Bomb Any Damn Time It Wants To | Foreign Policy by Jeffrey
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Per the ‘big boom’ the forensics on the fireball are likely amenable to detailed analysis leading to a ‘fuel-air’ explosion diagnostics.
The CTBT seismic systems should report on 100T to 1kT yield events so that independent measurement is available.
The rumored/claimed ‘scud shootdown’ claim ought to be supported by the forensic evidence. Saudis should provide at a minimum the photos of the scud carcass that hit the ground and the tactical tracks from the Patriot data recorders prior to people believing such claims.
Could you tell us how you think 10 to 250 tons of FAE fuel were delivered by air to the bunker? 😎
Secondarily, FAE explosions are characteristically different than HE with less intense shockwave coming off the burst; gas phase explosions have much lower detonation (Chapman-Jouguet) pressures.
George
I think ‘secondarily’ is the correct term. Looking at the YouTube video I think I see a “secondary event” where the fuel / explosives in the bunker exit and achieve stoichiometric mixing. It looks rather slow as compared to a supersonic pressure wave.
How many tons of HE and fuel/oxidizers in the facility?