It's been 11 months since the tragic Newtown shootings. Many gun control advocates believed that the mass murdering of innocent children would spawn a new gun control effort in the United States. So far, it would seem that gun control activists have been by most measures unsuccessful.
Why do I say that?
1. Their legislative gains have been minimal
We can start at the federal level. Outside of a few executive orders, there hasn't been a meaningful gun control bill passed by the United States Congress. The assault weapons ban went nowhere. The Senate tried to pass a watered down universal background check to attract the Republican support necessary to cross the 60 vote threshold. It only got 54 votes.
After that effort, talk of gun control at the federal level has pretty much disappeared. There have been no serious efforts from either President Obama or congressional Democrats. Part of the reason has to be that it's not worth the political risk when the Republican-controlled House wouldn't pass a gun control bill in any event.
Democrats have been somewhat more successful at the state level. Democratically-controlled states such as California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Illinois, and New York have passed significant gun control laws. Yet, even here, there has been political fallout.
Two Democratic Colorado State Senators were recalled over the gun control measures passed by the state legislature. This included the State Senate President, and a Senator who represented an area that went for Obama by almost 20pt. Another Democrat may be recalled soon. This not the type of result you'd expect, if gun control were popular.
Other states have actually seen gun restrictions relaxed. Alabama, Arkansas, Indiana, Louisiana, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, and Virginia have made it easier for school security to carry guns. About half the states have loosened their conceal-carry laws. Many local governments have pushed through laws that allow people to carry guns in more public places than had been previously allowed.
Overall, it's fair to say that it's easier to own and operate a gun now in most parts of the country than it had been prior to the Sandy Hook shootings.
2. The public's appetite for gun control has declined
The percentage of Americans who wants stricter gun control had been dropping steadily over the past two decades. The one event prior to Newtown that had changed the course of the trend was the Columbine school shooting in 1999. That bump, however, was only momentary. A year after Columbine, the average 1pt drop per year of support for stricter gun control continued until Newtown.
This chart from HuffPollster shows how there was about a 5-10pt jump in the percentage of Americans who wanted tighter gun restrictions just after Newtown. At the same time, the percentage of Americans who thought gun control should be addressed by President Obama in his state of the union hit 15%. That gave the federal government an open door to enact stronger gun control legislation. They failed to do it, and the public's will seems to have abated.
Both Gallup and YouGov have the percentage of Americans wanting tighter gun control dropping by about 10pt since their Newtown high. Gallup's 49% is now closer to the 44% before Newtown than the 58% immediately after it. The percentage of Americans who think that gun control is the most important issue was down to just 5% in early September. It's possible that the level has fallen further.
It's also important to recognize that the percentage of Americans who wanted stricter gun control after Sandy Hook was lower than it was after Columbine. That's because the baseline public opinion in favor of more gun control was lower. When, and if, the next school shooting tragedy takes place, it's probable that there will be even fewer Americans in favor of gun control before the shooting, so the percentage of Americans who want stricter gun control after the shooting might not even be a majority.
3. The media no longer cares
Newtown was different than other gun massacres over the past decade. Not just on its scale or who was killed, but how the media followed it. As Danny Hayes of George Washington University pointed out, news stories following other shootings that mentioned gun control were few and far between. That's likely why those tragedies didn't result in the polls changing much.
Using the site NewsBank, we know that in the month following Newtown the number of news stories that contained the phrase "gun control" was 23,712. The month after that, the number was 24,244. That was up from just 1,266 in the month prior to the Newtown shooting. Clearly, Newtown was "different".
The problem is that the media ended up switching gears. In this 24-hour news cycle, it was only a matter of time before there was something new happening. Check out how the number of news stories dropped off since the second month after Newtown.
In the three months following the first two, the number of news stories dropped by half. Then the bottom fell out, and the number of news stories referencing gun control since that point has never climbed above 5,000. Last month, the number hit its post-Newtown low of 2,001. Don't be surprised if that falls even further as Newtown fades even further into memory, and the holiday season begins in earnest.
Without the media, the public polling trend is quite unlikely to be reversed. The percentage of people who don't want stronger gun control will outnumber those who do.
Overall
The chances, and need, for passing meaningful gun control seemed strong after Newtown. The subsequent events and data available to us now indicate that it will probably be a very long time before stricter gun control comes to the United States nationwide.
