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Converging Networks
INVESTING IN TELCOS, CELLCOS, AND CABLECOS
Inside
Is It Time to Re-evaluate Some of Our Wireless Industry Assumptions? Industry News Calendar of Events Regulatory Events to Watch Price Performance Charts Valuation Comparables Net Asset Valuations
1 5 7 8 10 15 18
Jeff Fan, CPA, CA, CFA (416) 863-7780 Scotia Capital Inc. Canada jeff.fan@scotiabank.com
Jay Oduwole (416) 945-4249 Scotia Capital Inc. Canada Shay Nulman (416) 862-3721 Scotia Capital Inc. Canada
For Reg AC Certification and important disclosures see Appendix A of this report. Analysts employed by non-U.S. affiliates are not registered/qualified as research analysts withFINRA in the U.S.
Converging Networks
8.0%
7.9% 7.9%
7.7% 7.0%
1.0%
0.0%
3.1%
It is not just about subscriber trends slowing, revenue growth has also slowed (see February 18, 2014, edition of Converging Networks, available on ScotiaView). The price increases had a slowing effect on service revenue growth and data revenue growth. This was primarily caused by slower smartphone subscriber and smartphone penetration growth (see Exhibits 5 and 6), which fuel data revenue growth. As smartphone subscriber and smartphone penetration growth slow, so does data revenue growth. This brings us to the recent price increases, which are an attempt to offset the slower smartphone subscriber growth by lifting smartphone ARPU (the $5 per month per device increase in data sharing plans for new subscribers).
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5.8%
Incumbents are preparing for 2H/14 and 2015. We believe the incumbents are effectively assuming that the price increases will be absorbed in the second half of 2014. We presume they believe that by then the market will have adjusted to the new reality of the higher two-year price plans. Furthermore, we think they believe that subscribers will eventually upgrade to newer smartphones, which would migrate them to the new price plans. For some carriers, customers can stay on their existing plans only if they bring their own device (BYOD bring your own device) or pay the full price for a new smartphone. Looking out to 2015, if customers continue to delay their upgrades, there is a great chance that the industry will experience a double cohort on contract expiry and upgrade volume. This is because both the three-year contract customers (who have the option to exit at the two-year anniversary in 2015) and the two-year contract customers who signed up in 2013 have the option to exit in the same year. The higher prices should help offset the higher cost of acquisition (COA) and cost of retention (COR) due to higher gross addition and upgrade volume in 2015. An important assumption is that all three incumbents will remain disciplined on the policy of eliminating legacy plans and moving customers to the new plans. We are not saying the price increases will not be absorbed by the market. If the incumbents stick to their policies, and the market absorbs the price increases, we will likely see wireless revenue growth reaccelerate. This would assure the market that the pricing power in Canadian wireless remains strong and that the revenue growth slowdown in 2H/13 and 1H/14 would simply be temporary.
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However, if the price increases are not absorbed, then we believe some of the long-standing industry assumptions may have to be re-evaluated. This would include our long-term wireless penetration assumption (current assumption is that it should track the United States) and, more importantly, our smartphone penetration assumption (current assumption is that it should reach 100%). How could subscribers not absorb the price increase? Is it possible that subscribers could reduce their data bucket purchases to keep the monthly service fee at par? This may be easier in Western Canada where Shaws Wi-Fi network now has more than 30,000 hotspots and is seeing average Wi-Fi data usage near the current average usage for smartphones. Wireless spending (and communications spending overall) as a percentage of GDP has risen sharply over the past several years; have we finally reached the peak? We believe the 2H/14 results will provide us the insights. On EBITDA and cash flow, incumbents generated strong margins due to the slower subscriber volume in 2H/13 and we expect this will continue in the first half of 2014. Hence, even if wireless revenue growth continues to slow in the first half of 2014, we expect EBITDA growth to remain healthy for the industry overall. However, while rising margins is easily achievable in the short term due to lower volume, it would be difficult to sustain over the medium to long term without sustainable revenue growth.
Exhibit 5: Annual Canadian Smartphone Penetratrion (Percentage of Postpaid Subscribers)
80% 70% 60% 50% +17% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 2008
Source: Company reports; Scotiabank GBM.
53%
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
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Industry News
TELUS Announces Leadership Progression
(March 31 TELUS) Effective as of TELUS (T-T) upcoming Annual General Meeting on May 8, 2014, TELUS is pleased to announce board and management leadership appointments that have been fostered through the companys robust succession planning process. These changes will ensure the continuity of TELUS national growth strategy and the companys top priority of always putting customers first. Brian Canfield will retire following 58 years of exemplary service with TELUS and BC TEL. Mr. Canfield has served as TELUS non-executive chair since 1999, upon completion of the merger of BC TEL and TELUS. Darren Entwistle is being appointed executive chair of TELUS. Since 2000, TELUS has become a recognized global leader in shareholder value creation, technology innovation, human capital development and employee engagement, and corporate social responsibility.
Joe Natale is being appointed president and CEO of TELUS. Mr. Natale joined TELUS in 2003 as an executive vice president and has progressed through increasingly expansive roles, including president of TELUS Business Solutions and president of TELUS Consumer Solutions. Since 2010, Mr. Natale has served as TELUS chief commercial officer, leading a team of more than 25,000.
Cheaper iPhone Plans Come to Quebec
(March 29 Global News) Videotron (OBR.B-T), the scrappy cable company that launched cellphone services across Quebec a few years ago has at last landed the vaunted iPhone, which continues to be the most popular wireless device on the planet. The launch of the device isnt so much the big news its the monthly pricing thats come along with it. Videotron is substantially undercutting the plans offered by Bell (BCE-T), Rogers (RCI.B-T), and TELUS (T-T) in the province, offering monthly rates that are as much as 36% less expensive than what the Big Three incumbents charge for iPhone-eligible plans.
Videotron is charging $74.95 a month for unlimited Canada-wide calling, text message, and 4 GB of data. The equivalent incumbent plans are $110/month which Bell, Rogers, and Telus uniformly charge their subscribers. For $80 a month, Videotron iPhone subscribers can get the same deal and a total of 6 GB of data, a plan that costs Rogers, Bell, and TELUS subscribers $125 a month currently, according to analysts. Videotrons pricing is clearly designed to win over droves of new customers in a hurry.
Charter, the fourth-largest U.S. cable company, had offered to buy Time Warner Cable the secondlargest U.S. cable company for $37 billion in cash and stock, a bid rejected as too low by Time Warner Cable Chief Executive Officer Rob Marcus. Although Comcasts shares have declined about 10% since the acquisition agreement was announced, they would need to drop at least another 8% to fall to the levels of Charters proposal.
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We are fully committed to our merger with Comcast, which we believe is in the best interests of shareholders, Time Warner Cable said today. John Demming, a Comcast spokesman, said the company declined to comment.
(March 28 Bloomberg) Billionaire Charlie Ergen, who scrapped plans 11 years ago to merge his Dish satellite business with DirecTV because of regulatory concerns, is at it again.
The cable rivals of Ergens Dish Network (DISH-Q) are getting bigger, with Comcast (CMCSA-Q) and Time Warner Cable (TWC-N) preparing for a $45 billion merger. Potential partners in the wireless business have spurned the company. Furthermore, a host of new competitors, from phone companies to Internet-video providers, are luring away the companys subscribers.
Thats all putting increasing pressure on Ergen, a former professional gambler from Oak Ridge, Tennessee, to coax a skittish DirecTV into a deal. At the same time, he has to convince regulators that a satellite merger wouldnt harm competition. Youve got a whole different dynamic than 10 years ago, he said in a 2012 interview. I would be relatively optimistic you could put a deal together if there was a desire with DirecTV that makes sense for the government to approve. Ergen, 61, recently reached out to Mike White, DirecTVs chief executive officer, to discuss a combination of the two largest satellite TV providers, according to several people with knowledge of the matter, Bloomberg News reported this week. While White hasnt ruled out a deal, hes reluctant to push forward with formal talks out of concern that regulators would block the combination again, the same sources said. Government regulators forced Ergen to scrap the merger in late 2002.
Since those consumers often opt for ultra-cheap talk-and-text plans, broader questions are being raised about the state of competition in the $20 billion wireless market at a time when the two remaining independent carriers, Mobilicity and Wind Mobile, appear to be on weaker footing.
For a large majority of the customers, this is actually an incredibly beneficial move, said Kevin Banderk, general manager of Public Mobile and the head of TELUS Koodo brand. To move from where they are today and, generally speaking, keep the price points where they are today onto a network that is of the latest and greatest technology much more reliable, much faster data speeds and national in scope is actually a good thing. We understand that the transition is a bit tricky and were doing everything we can to make that as easy as possible. Industry Minister James Moore questioned the wisdom of TELUS move. Seems like an odd business decision to alienate thousands of Public Mobile users as you absorb Public Mobile itself, Mr. Moore told The Globe and Mail, while on a trade mission in Germany. Ultimately its a business decision Ill leave for Telus to explain.
Converging Networks
Calendar of Events
Exhibit 7: Upcoming Events
March 31
April 1
2 Scotiabank
3
Jeff Fan marketing in Boston
4
Jeff Fan marketing in Boston
Scotiabank
9
Call 11:00 a.m. ET Dial: 1-800-820-0231 Code: 8125587 Call 3:30 p.m. ET Dial: 866-321-6651 Code: 1639706
10 CCA Q2/14
11
SJR Q2/14
14
15
16
17 Good Friday
Bank closed
18
21
Call 4:30 p.m. ET Dial 416-644-3414 Code: N/A
22
Call 8:30 a.m. ET Dial 1-800-263-8495 Code: 10792182
23
Call 8:30 a.m. ET Dial 1-888-455-3018 Code: VERIZON
24 VZ Q1/14
25
RCI Q1/14
Comcast Q1/14
AT&T Q1/14
28
Los Angeles April 29- May 1
30 BA Q1/14
May 1
5 BCE Q1/14
Tentative
7 TELUS Q1/14
Tentative
12 MTS Q1/14
Tentative
13 QBR Q1/14
Tentative
14
15
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Industry Canada
CRTC
On January 31, 2014, the Supreme Court of Canada reinstated a lower court ruling on a lawsuit regarding the administration of one of MTSs pension plans following the companys 1997 privatization. Pension benefits are expected to be increased by $43 million, plus interest calculated at a rate equal to the pension plans rate of return since 1997, which could increase pension benefits by up to $147 million. The implications of the ruling are complex and require further discussions and negotiations with plaintiffs before the definitive impacts on the MTS pension plan and the company are known with certainty. See SCC Case 34763. Final results for the auction for 68 MHz of 700 MHz were announced on February 19, 2014. Ten companies participated in the auction and 97 of 98 licences were awarded to eight of those participants, with a total value of $5.27 billion. Winning bidders had until March 5, 2014, to submit 20% of their total final payment. The remaining 80% of their total final payment is due April 2, 2014. On January 10, 2014, Industry Canada announced the 2,500 MHz auction will take place on April 14, 2015. On December 18, 2013, the Government of Canada announced plans to cap wireless wholesale roaming rates paid by new entrants to incumbents at a rate no higher than the incumbents retail rates. The legislature was included in the federal budget released February 11, 2014. On June 28, 2013, Industry Canada issued its framework relating to spectrum transfers, which essentially reiterates the then Industry Ministers comments on June 4, 2013, and clarifies in writing that spectrum transfer requests will be reviewed and those that would result in undue spectrum concentration and therefore diminish competition will not be permitted. Decisions on transfer requests will be made on a case-by-case basis and will be issued publicly to increase transparency. The new framework does not apply to prior agreements and will override the existing five-year limit on AWS licence transfer to incumbents. The new framework will be tested as the five-year limit on Videotrons AWS spectrum expired on December 22, 2013, and Mobilicitys on February 10, 2014. Winds licences will expire on March 12, 2014, and Shaws on September 1, 2014. On February 27, 2014, Industry Canada blocked a request to transfer 83 wireless spectrum licences from NextWave to Inukshuk, which is owned by Rogers and BCE. Canadas Industry Minister, James Moore, said in a brief statement that the sale of the 2.3 GHz airwave licences would have created unacceptable levels of concentration of spectrum in the hands of incumbent carriers. In mid-2013, the CRTC undertook a fact-finding exercise to assess the competitive impact of existing wholesale wireless roaming arrangements between Canadian carriers. A proceeding to further analyze whether the current wholesale roaming regime is placing new entrants at an unfair competitive disadvantage is scheduled for September 29, 2014. In addition to comments in the October 2013 Throne Speech regarding pickand-pay programming, the federal government has asked the CRTC to provide a formal review of so-called pick-and-pay TV services. The CRTC has until April 30, 2014, to deliver the report, including steps the commission plans to take toward breaking up TV programming bundles. The CRTC will hold proceedings to look into whether incumbent Internet service providers (ISPs) should be required to give smaller competitors wholesale access to their fibre-to-the-home networks. The proceeding will include a public hearing, which will begin on October 27, 2014. See Telecom Notice of Consultation CRTC 2013-551.
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U.S.
On September 28, 2012, the FCC launched an incentive auction process seeking public comment on repurposing 600 MHz or broadcast TV spectrum for mobile broadband. On December 6, 2013, FCC Chairman Tom Wheeler said the commission is moving the start of the 600 MHz broadcast TV spectrum incentive auctions to mid-2015 from a previously scheduled start of sometime in 2014 to make sure the agency gets the technology and policy correct. On March 14, 2013, the FCC auction of licences in the 1,915-1,920 MHz (Lower H Block) and 1,995-2,000 MHz (Upper H Block) bands ended, with total bids of $1.56 billion, exactly the auction reserve price. The licences were secured by Dish Network. On July 23, 2013, the FCC proposed new rules to allocate and license four Advanced Wireless Services (AWS) bands by February 2015. The four bands, which are jointly referred to as AWS-3, are in the 1,695-1,710; 1,755-1,780; 2,025-2,155; and 2,155-2,180 MHz bands. Comments were due September 18, 2013, and reply comments were due October 16, 2013. See GN Docket No. 13185. On November 21, 2013, the FCC announced a proposal to expand consumer access for mobile services on commercial flights. In its open meeting on December 12, 2013, the FCC voted three to two to consider lifting its ban on inflight cell phone use. The Commission will now seek to solicit public input on the proposal, and will carefully review input from consumers and stakeholders before taking any final action. See WT Docket No. 13-301. On February 13, 2014, Comcast announced a proposed $45.2 billion takeover of Time Warner Cable. The U.S. Senate will hold a hearing on March 26, 2014, to access the impact of the merger on consumers. In addition, Comcast is targeting the end of March to submit its application to the FCC. Companies typically have 30 business days to file with the FCC after a deals announcement. Around the same time, Comcast will also submit documents asking antitrust regulators for approval. The FTC and Justice Department will then determine which agency will take the lead on the review.
Converging Networks
10
Converging Networks
03
n Ja
4 -1 10
n Ja
4 -1 17
n Ja
4 -1 24
n Ja
4 -1 31
n Ja
4 -1 07
bFe
14 14
bFe
14 21
bFe
14 28
bFe
14 -M 07
ar
-1
-M 14
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-M 21
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Converging Networks
03
n Ja
4 -1 10
n Ja
4 4 4 4 4 4 14 -14 r-14 r-14 r-14 r-14 -1 n-1 n-1 n-1 b-1 b-1 ba a a a e e e eb a a a -J -J -J 7-F 4-F -F 8-F 7-M 4-M 1-M 8-M 7 4 1 1 1 2 3 0 2 1 2 0 1 2 2
Exhibit 13: Canadian Telecom, Wireless, and Cable Total Return Performance
108 106 104 102 100 98 96 94 Cdn Cable Cdn Telecos Cdn Wireless S&P/TSX Composite
12
Converging Networks
Exhibit 14: U.S. Telecom, Wireless, and Cable Total Return Performance
104 102 100 98 96 94 92 90 88 U.S. Telecos U.S. Wireless U.S. Cable S&P 500
4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 ar ar ar ar eb eb eb eb an an an an an M M M M F F J J F J F J J 21 28 14 07 28 21 24 31 14 17 07 10 03
U.S. Telcos: Equal weighting T and VZ. U.S. Wireless: T, VZ, S, USM, TMUS. U.S. Cable: Equal weighting CHTR, CMCSA, CVC, TWC. Dividends included in calculations. Source: Bloomberg; FactSet.
105 100 95 90 85 80 75
4 4 4 4 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 r-1 r-1 r-1 r-1 nnnnnbbbba a a a e e e e a a a a a -J -J -J -J -J -M -M -M -F -M -F -F -F 31 24 10 17 03 21 28 14 28 07 21 14 07
MEXBOL = Mexican Bolsa Index or IPC (ndice de Precios y Cotizaciones); IBOV = Brazil BOVESPA stock index. Returns are in local currency. Source: Bloomberg; FactSet.
13
Converging Networks
Exhibit 16: Total Return Performance: One Month Rolling to March 31, 2014 T-N BCE-T BA-T MBT-T VZ-N T-T USM-A S-N TMUS-N QBR.B-T RCI.B-T CVC-N SJR.B-T CMCSA-O CCA-T CGO-T TWC-N S&P/TSX S&P 500 -5% 0% 5% 10% 15%
Exhibit 17: Total Return Performance: Three Months Rolling to March 31, 2014 MBT-T T-T VZ-N BCE-T T-N BA-T TMUS-N USM-A S-N CMCSA-O CGO-T QBR.B-T TWC-N CCA-T RCI.B-T SJR.B-T CVC-N S&P/TSX S&P 500 -20% -10% 0% 10% 20%
Exhibit 18: Total Return Performance: Six Months Rolling to March 31, 2014 T-T BCE-T BA-T MBT-T VZ-N T-N S-N TMUS-N USM-A TWC-N CMCSA-O QBR.B-T CGO-T SJR.B-T RCI.B-T CVC-N CCA-T S&P/TSX S&P 500 -20%-10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
Dividends included in calculations. Source: FactSet.
Exhibit 19: Total Return Performance: One Year Rolling to March 31, 2014 T-T BA-T BCE-T VZ-N T-N MBT-T S-N* TMUS-N USM-A TWC-N CGO-T CCA-T QBR.B-T CMCSA-O CVC-N SJR.B-T RCI.B-T S&P/TSX S&P 500
-20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%120%140% *One-year returns not available for Sprint given re-listing on 07/08/13 post-Softbank transaction Dividends included in calculations. Source: FactSet.
14
15
Converging Networks
One-year TKR BCE-CA BA-CA CCA-CA MBT-CA QBR.B-CA RCI.B-CA SJR.B-CA T-CA Scotiabank GBM Rating Sector Perform Sector Outperform Sector Outperform Sector Underperform Focus Stock Sector Outperform Sector Outperform Sector Outperform Price 3/28/14 $47.45 $27.03 $56.24 $30.23 $26.90 $45.85 $26.25 $40.35 Target Price $48.00 $27.00 $63.00 $31.00 $33.50 $46.00 $29.00 $39.00 ROR 6.4% 6.9% 14.2% 8.2% 24.9% 4.3% 14.7% 0.2% High 52-week Low $40.58 $24.79 $41.59 $28.18 $20.13 $40.18 $22.23 $29.52 Dividend Rate Yield $2.47 $1.90 $1.20 $1.70 $0.10 $1.83 $1.10 $1.44 5.2% 7.0% 2.1% 5.6% 0.4% 4.0% 4.2% 3.6% Market Cap. 35,932 6,192 2,758 2,125 3,892 23,704 11,891 25,622 Net Debt 21,172 3,111 2,866 1,036 3,802 12,393 5,147 8,116 Other* 3,298 143 235 (305) 0 (1,323) (5) 0 Enterprise Value 60,402 9,446 5,859 2,856 7,695 34,774 17,033 33,738 '13E-'15E EPS CAGR 7.4% -6.3% 11.9% 0.5% 15.8% 0.6% 6.6% 10.4% 2014E PEG 2.1 x n.m. 1.0 x n.m. 0.8 x n.m. 2.2 x 1.6 x
Canadian BCE Inc. Bell Aliant Cogeco Cable Manitoba Tel Quebecor Inc. Rogers Comm. Shaw Comm. TELUS Corp.
LatAm ** AMX NII Holdings, Inc. AMX-US NIHD-US Sector Perform Sector Outperform $19.26 $1.16 $19.20 $3.00 1.5% 158.6% $23.75 $9.82 $18.40 $0.83 $0.35 $0.00 1.8% 0.0% 69,618 199 33,300 4,373 3,039 0 105,957 4,572 6.9% n.m. 1.2 x n.m.
Canadian BCE Inc. Bell Aliant Cogeco Cable Manitoba Tel Quebecor Inc. Rogers Comm. Shaw Comm. TELUS Corp. Cap Wgt Avg LatAm ** AMX NII Holdings, Inc. Cap Wgt Avg U.S. AT&T Comcast Corp. Time Warner Cable Verizon Comm. Cap Wgt Avg
2013 7.8 x 7.3 x 6.7 x 5.7 x 6.6 x 7.5 x 8.2 x 8.0 x 7.7 x
EV/EBITDA 2014E 7.3 x 7.7 x 6.7 x 5.6 x 7.0 x 6.9 x 8.0 x 7.8 x 7.4 x
2015E 7.3 x 7.9 x 6.3 x 5.6 x 6.6 x 6.7 x 7.7 x 7.4 x 7.2 x
2013 14.7 x 13.3 x 13.8 x 15.0 x 12.1 x 13.6 x 15.1 x 16.8 x 14.8 x
EV/Cash EBIT 2014E 13.3 x 13.3 x 12.9 x 13.6 x 14.0 x 12.8 x 16.6 x 16.4 x 14.3 x
2015E 13.1 x 12.9 x 11.0 x 13.0 x 12.3 x 12.2 x 14.2 x 14.7 x 13.3 x
2013 17.7 x 16.4 x 11.8 x 17.5 x 16.7 x 14.1 x 16.2 x 18.1 x 16.6 x
P/E 2014E 15.8 x 17.8 x 12.3 x 18.6 x 14.5 x 13.8 x 14.1 x 17.6 x 15.6 x
2015E 15.8 x 18.9 x 11.8 x 17.7 x 12.7 x 13.3 x 14.4 x 16.4 x 15.2 x
2013 5.7% 6.2% 7.1% -0.2% 5.9% 5.3% 5.7% 4.0% 5.2%
FCF Yield 2014E 5.5% 4.9% 7.8% 6.3% 5.4% 5.9% 3.0% 4.1% 5.0%
2015E 5.8% 6.7% 12.2% 6.1% 7.2% 6.2% 4.1% 4.9% 5.8%
Target Multiples EV/EBITDA P/E EV/Cash EBIT FCF Yield 7.4 x 7.9 x 6.7 x 5.9 x 6.6 x 8.1 x 8.1 x 7.7 x 7.6 x 15.9 x 16.0 x 12.4 x 17.9 x 15.7 x 15.5 x 14.0 x 15.9 x 15.6 x 13.2 x 12.9 x 11.1 x 13.7 x 12.2 x 14.9 x 14.8 x 14.8 x 14.0 x 5.8% 6.8% 10.8% 5.9% 6.1% 5.5% 4.4% 5.2% 5.6%
4 5
10.1 x 20 x 10.1 x
Includes minority interest, working capital deficit, and tax shields. Note: AMX and NIHD are also covered by Andres Coello EV and valuation metrics are pro-forma Verizon Wireless transaction BCE, BA, QBR, RCI, T, T.N, TWC, CMCSA, and VZ FCF yields are fully taxed. BA, BCE, MBT, T.TO, TWC, and VZ FCF yields include voluntary pension contributions. AMX excludes acquisition of KPN and Telekom Austria stakes Using NTM estimates, one year forward EBITDA includes wireless equipment subsidies EBITDA and Cash EBIT represents QBR's proportionate share of TVA and QMI
Normalized Adjusted Earnings used. BA EPS excludes customer relationship amortization expense. U.S. and International companies stated in US$ Sources: Scotiabank GBM estimates, Company reports, Factset
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Converging Networks
Canadian BCE Inc. Bell Aliant Cogeco Cable Manitoba Tel Quebecor Inc. Rogers Comm. Shaw Comm. TELUS Corp.
1 1 2 4
Revenue (Cons.) 2013 2014E 2015E 20,400 2,759 1,692 1,634 4,339 12,706 5,142 11,404 20,987 2,715 1,918 1,629 4,380 13,065 5,274 11,930 21,156 2,659 1,992 1,620 4,447 13,407 5,315 12,259
EBITDA (Cons.) 2013 2014E 2015E 7,694 1,274 781 479 1,069 4,980 2,042 4,018 8,252 1,229 878 510 1,098 5,039 2,140 4,310 8,285 1,198 927 510 1,162 5,225 2,203 4,543
Cash EBIT (Cons.) 2013 2014E 2015E 4,072 704 373 183 586 2,740 1,111 1,908 4,538 709 453 210 550 2,725 1,024 2,057 4,611 733 531 219 628 2,857 1,196 2,291
Normalized EPS 2013 2014E 2015E $2.61 $1.63 $3.80 $1.70 $1.58 $3.42 $1.60 $2.02 $3.01 $1.52 $4.56 $1.63 $1.85 $3.33 $1.86 $2.29 $3.01 $1.43 $4.77 $1.71 $2.12 $3.46 $1.82 $2.46
FCFPS 6 2014E $2.60 $1.32 $4.39 $1.90 $1.46 $2.70 $0.79 $1.66
LatAm ** AMX NII Holdings, Inc. 62,781 4,855 66,230 5,741 68,774 6,183 20,491 351 21,290 735 22,115 1,154 9,977 (625) 10,497 225 11,431 754 $2.05 ($9.60) $2.22 ($4.63) $2.34 ($2.39) $1.46 -$1.63 $1.51 -$1.32 $1.73 -$3.44
Canadian BCE Inc. Bell Aliant Cogeco Cable Manitoba Tel Quebecor Inc. Rogers Comm. Shaw Comm. TELUS Corp. Cap Wgt Avg LatAm ** AMX NII Holdings, Inc. Cap Wgt Avg U.S. AT&T Comcast Corp. Time Warner Cable Verizon Comm. Cap Wgt Avg
** 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
EBITDA Growth, Organic 2013 2014E 2015E 1.9% -1.3% 7.1% -5.8% 4.4% 2.1% 3.9% 4.6% 2.7% 1.3% -3.5% 4.0% 6.2% 3.7% 0.6% 3.4% 3.8% 1.9% 0.1% -2.5% 5.6% 0.4% 5.2% 3.7% 2.5% 7.9% 3.1%
Cash EBIT Growth 2013 2014E 2015E -3.4% 0.7% 23.9% -2% 4.3% 1.1% 4.8% 2% 0.9% 7.6% 0.8% 10% 14.7% -6.0% -1.2% -7.9% 0.0% 1.7% 1.0% 3.4% 17% 4.2% 14.1% 4.9% 16.9% 0.0% 4.3%
EPS Growth 2014E 2015E 17.1% -6.6% 19.9% -3.9% 16.9% -2.6% 16.1% 13% 10.3% 1.3% -6.0% 4.4% 5.1% 14.8% 3.9% -2.1% 7% 3.1%
FCFPS Growth 7 2013 2014E 2015E 15% -1% -2.1% 0% 105% 4% 31.3% -16% 9% -1.5% -20% 42% 15% -6% 5% -47% 14.7% -1.1% 6.9% 37% 57% 4% 33% 5% 38% 18.4% 16.2%
Note: AMX and NIHD are also covered by Andres Coello EBITDA, Cash EBIT and EPS includes restructuring. Figures are pro forma sale of Portugal operation. Growth rates except EPS are pro forma Atlantic Broadband and Peer 1 acquisitions. EBITDA includes deferred charges.
EBITDA includes wireless equipment subsidies (which are capitalized by MTS but not by its peers) and adjusted for IAS19 adoption. EBITDA growth rates before wireless SAC but include restructuring. EBITDA and Cash EBIT represents QBR's proportionate share of TVA and QMI Proportionate FCF. BCE, BA, QBR, RCI, T, T.N, TWC, CMCSA, VZ figures are fully taxed. AMX F12 figure excludes acquisition of KPN and Telekom Austria stakes. BCE, Bell Aliant, TELUS, MBT, SJR, TWC, and VZ growth rates exclude voluntary pension contributions.
Normalized Adjusted Earnings used. BA EPS excludes customer relationship amortization expense. U.S. and International companies stated in US$ Sources: Scotiabank GBM estimates, Company reports, Factset
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Converging Networks
Canadian BCE Inc. Bell Aliant Cogeco Cable Manitoba Tel Quebecor Inc. Rogers Comm. Shaw Comm. TELUS Corp. Cap Wgt Avg LatAm ** AMX NII Holdings, Inc. Wgt Avg U.S. AT&T Comcast Corp. Time Warner Cable Verizon Comm. Cap Wgt Avg
3
Capex/Revenue (Cons.) 2013 2014E 2015E 17.5% 20.7% 24.1% 18.1% 15.0% 17.6% 17.1% 18.5% 18.0% 17.4% 20.6% 22.1% 18.4% 16.9% 17.7% 20.0% 18.4% 18.3% 17.1% 17.5% 19.9% 18.0% 15.1% 17.7% 17.9% 17.9% 17.5%
Deprec./Revenue (Cons.) 2013 2014E 2015E 16.6% 22.3% 22.6% 18.9% 15.4% 14.9% 16.6% 15.8% 16.5% 16.7% 22.7% 24.4% 21.2% 15.5% 15.3% 13.9% 15.6% 16.4% 16.7% 22.5% 23.5% 20.8% 15.4% 15.3% 14.4% 15.9% 16.5%
Net Debt/EBITDA (Cons.) 2013 2014E 2015E 2.7 x 2.5 x 3.6 x 1.7 x 3.1 x 2.2 x 2.2 x 1.9 x 2.4 x 2.5 x 2.7 x 3.2 x 1.6 x 3.1 x 2.8 x 2.1 x 2.1 x 2.5 x 2.5 x 2.8 x 2.8 x 1.5 x 2.8 x 2.8 x 1.9 x 2.2 x 2.4 x
2013
Net Debt (Cons.) 2014E 2015E 20,305 3,281 2,830 814 4,684 14,131 4,503 9,179 20,304 3,298 2,555 779 4,445 14,598 4,168 9,799
33,300 4,373
33,146 5,310
33,326 5,926
** 1 2 3
Note: AMX and NIHD are also covered by Andres Coello F12 pro forma sale of Portugal operation. F13 pro forma Atlantic Broadband and Peer 1 acquisitions. Capex excludes deferred charges. Net debt and leverage are pro-forma Verizon Wireless transaction. U.S. and International companies stated in US$ Sources: Scotiabank GBM estimates, Company reports, Factset
Converging Networks
(US$ millions, except per share data) Share Price Consolidated EV/cash EBIT Multiple EV/EBITDA Multiple P/E Multiple FCF Yield (NTM, fully taxed) 1-Year ROR
Current
EBITDA 2012 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E EV/EBITDA Multiple
1-Year Target
EV/EBITDA Multiple
Value
Value +
Other
8,235 8,235
Total Gross Asset Value Less: Total Net Debt (Cash) FD Shares Outstanding (M) NET ASSET VALUE DCF
260,022 74,852
251,331 73,494
185,170
$35.07
177,837
$34.32 $35.55
$34.94
18
Converging Networks
2013E Bell Canada Bell Canada - Wireline/Other Bell Canada - Wireless Bell Media MLSE Q9 Less: Bell Net Debt 2 Total Bell Canada Other/Corp Bell Aliant (BA) * Total Gross Asset Value Less: Bell working capital deficit Bell Preferred Shares (50%) Total Net Debt (Cash) Plus: NPV of Tax shield Less: 30% Discount on Inukshuk Shares Outstanding (M) Net Asset Value
1
2016E
Shares Owned
100 M
27.03
2,713 38,536
$3.50 $49.67
$27.00
2,710 39,736
$3.49 $51.21
36,816
$47.45
37,646
$48.52 $48.29
Target Price Calculation (Average of NAV and DCF) * Reflects Bell Canada's proportionate interest in Bell Aliant. 1 EBITDA estimates are consolidated. Ownership % reflects Bell's proportionate share.
2
Reflects Bell's proportionate share of CTVgm debt. + Enterprise Values calculated using 12 month forward values.
19
Converging Networks
(C$ millions, except per share data) Bell Aliant Share Price EV/EBITDA multiple (NTM) P/E multiple (NTM) - fully taxed 1 FCF yield (NTM) - fully taxed 2 FCF yield (NTM) - actual tax 2 Cash EBIT (NTM) multiple 1-Year ROR
Current
EV/EBITDA Multiple
1-Year Target
EV/EBITDA Multiple
Value
Value
Value +
per Share
Telecom Other
Telecom
1,290
1,291
1,274
1,229
1,198
1,215
7.73 x
9,446
$41.23
7.25 x
8,717
$38.03
0 0 8,717 3,368
Pension deficit 4 Total Gross Asset Value Less: Total Net Debt 5 FD Shares Outstanding (000) NET ASSET VALUE
6,192
$27.03
$23.34
26.56
+ 1 2 3 4 5
Enterprise Value calculated using 12 month forward EBITDA P/E excludes purchase price amortization expense of ~$80M per annum, pre-tax Includes $65M-60M one-time cash tax payment in 2014 for change in partnership income deferral rules. EBITDA includes restructuring and pension current service cost. Pension solvency deficit (~$700M in early F13) not included as pension cost has been included in EBITDA. Includes non-cash working capital deficit and preferred shares accorded 50% equity treatment.
20
Converging Networks
Current
EBITDA 2012 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E EV/EBITDA Multiple
1-Year Target
EV/EBITDA Multiple
Value +
Value +
Other
Total Gross Asset Value Less: Consolidated Net Debt (Cash) Minority Interest FD Shares Outstanding (M) NET ASSET VALUE DCF
176,965 46,129
202,285 41,819
130,836
$49.34
160,466
$61.56 $64.51
$62.04
21
Converging Networks
Cogeco Cable
Residential CDS Management fees and intersegment Cable & Internet - Canada Cable & Internet - U.S. Less: Net Debt 1
622,914 653,818 111,945 124,819 (27,443) (28,108) 707,416 701,047 170,462 176,831
4% 11%
3%
49,034
Enterprise Value calculated using 12 month forward EBITDA Includes US$1.36B for Atlantic Broadband acquisition and $635M for Peer 1 acquisition.
22
Converging Networks
Current
EBITDA 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E EV/EBITDA Multiple
1-Year Target
EV/EBITDA Multiple
Value
Value +
Telecom
MTS (Manitoba) 1 Allstream (National) Total Telecom 399,400 79,700 479,100 403,657 106,123 509,780 403,715 106,349 510,064 399,526 111,112 510,638 6.02 x 4.00 x 2,431,153 424,716 2,855,869 $34.58 $6.04 $40.62 6.25 x 4.00 x 2,516,740 430,112 2,946,851 $34.47 $5.89 $40.36
305,000
$4.34 $0.00
3,160,869 1,035,700
2,125,169
$30.23
2,206,945
$30.22
$32.25 $31.24
23
Converging Networks
Share Price Prop. EV/EBITDA Multiple P/E Multiple FCF Yield (NTM) 1 Prop. EV/cash EBIT Multiple FCF Yield (NTM) fully taxed 2 1-Year ROR
EBITDA 2012 2013E 1,291,100 2014E 1,363,085 2015E 1,438,884 2016E 1,504,095
Shares Owned
1,213,400
Newspapers
$1.53 $0.66 $1.35 ($0.13) $1.48 $72.34 $29.54 $42.80 $0.72 $42.08 $10.35 $31.73 $4.49 ($0.34) 144,700
$2.06 $0.72 $1.45 ($0.29) $1.74 $84.60 $35.19 $49.41 $0.85 $48.56 $11.94 $36.61 $5.32 ($0.49) 122,189
Other (Leisure & Entertainment + NURUN + Portals) TVA gross asset value
1,359,707
1,450,700
1,489,945
1,578,765
1,652,236
Less: QMI Cons. Net Debt + W/C Deficit QMI Equity Less: TVA Minority Interest QBR and CDP share of QMI Equity Less: CDP Minority Interest QBR share of QMI Equity Less: QBR Corporate Debt QBR Corporate FD Shares Outstanding ('000) QBR Net Asset Value
5 4
11.6 M
$9.02
$9.02
3,400
(6,900)
(8,326)
(10,582)
(12,233)
5.5 x
(48,864)
5.5 x
(60,448)
3,892,430
$26.90
3,763,174
Average NAV and DCF
$30.80 33.49
Enterprise Value calculated using 12 month forward values Assumes two years of cash taxes (F12 and F13) are paid in 2013. Assumes 2012 cash taxes are paid in 2012, not in 2013. Includes News Media severance expense. 24.6% of QMI held by CDP Includes $500M of convertible debentures at Quebecor Inc.
24
Converging Networks
Current
EBITDA 2012 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E Shares Owned EV/EBITDA Mult. or Share Price
Value *
1-Year Target
EV/EBITDA Mult. or Share Price
Value *
Rogers Wireless
Rogers Wireless Inukshuk Less: Wireless Debt Total Rogers Wireless 3,063,000 3,157,000 3,193,181 3,285,188 3,408,331 6.98 x 22,458,244 1,642,333 20,815,911 $43.44 $3.18 $40.26 6.50 x 21,551,911 881,333 20,670,578 $42.29 $1.73 $40.56
0.9%
3.1%
1.1%
2.9%
3.7%
1,694,000
3.6%
1,816,000
5.0%
1,870,654
2.2%
1,942,589
3.7%
2,027,388
3.8%
6.5 x
6.5 x
Broadcasting (incl Citytv) Publishing BlueJays/SkyDome Less: Media Debt Total Rogers Media
1,548,600 137,183 -333,970 0 1,351,813 324,436 601,089 860,000 535,658 1,249,868 -1,331,249 7,963,000 (9,294,249)
23,610,700
$3.00 $0.27 -$0.65 $0.00 $2.61 $0.63 $1.16 $1.66 $1.04 $2.42 -$2.57 $15.40 -$17.98 $45.67 $0.18
1,710,916 141,299 -343,989 0 1,508,226 324,436 427,517 860,000 483,586 1,128,367 -1,364,002 12,715,681 (14,079,683)
19,773,076
$3.36 $0.28 -$0.68 $0.00 $2.96 $0.64 $0.84 $1.69 $0.95 $2.21 -$2.68 $24.95 -$27.63 $38.80 $0.18
Investments
Cogeco Inc. (CGO) Cogeco Cable (CCA) 37.5% stake in MLSE and other investments Less: Holding Company Discount Total Investments (149,000) (203,542) (208,654) (213,472)
Corporate Corporate Expense and Elim. (113,000) Less: Corporate Debt Net of Cash Total Corporate
6.5 x
6.5 x
NAV Excluding Tax Shields Plus: Present Value of Tax Shields (Discounted 25%) NET ASSET VALUE Shares Outstanding ('000)
93,750 23,704,450
$45.85
517,000
93,750 19,866,826
$38.99
25
Converging Networks
(C$ thousands, except per share data) Share Price EV/EBITDA Multiple (NTM) P/E Multiple (NTM) Cash EBIT Multiple (NTM) FCF Yield (NTM) 1-Year ROR
Current
EV/EBITDA Mult. 2015E 2016E or Share Price
Value +
1-Year Target
EV/EBITDA Mult. or Share Price
Value +
Cable
Cable and Internet Total Cable Enmax Business-to-Business Shaw Direct Canwest/Media (Proportionate)
1,426,000
1,503,996
1,578,521
1,646,684
1,711,833
7.9 x
$28.21 $28.21 $0.41 $0.43 $1.66 $6.92 $9.42 -$0.02 $37.61 $11.36 453,000
7.5 x
$27.50 $27.50 $0.44 $0.51 $1.85 $6.92 $9.72 $0.00 $37.22 $10.71 459,507
Tax Shield (discounted 25%) Total Gross Asset Value Less: Total Net Debt (Cash) 2 FD Shares Outstanding ('000) NET ASSET VALUE
11,891,250
$26.25
$26.51 28.78
March 28, 2014
Includes equipment subsidies. Includes working capital deficit and preferred shares accorded 50% equity treatment.
26
Converging Networks
Current
EBITDA 2011 2012 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E EV/EBITDA Multiple
1-Year Target
EV/EBITDA Multiple
Value
Value +
7,226 7,226
7,824 7,824
7,980 7,980
8,347 8,347
8,577 8,577
8,974 8,974
7.33 x
61,590 0 61,590
7.00 x
60,728 0 60,728
Other
1,664 0 1,664
1,480 0 1,480
Total Gross Asset Value Less: Total Net Debt (Cash) FD Shares Outstanding (M) NET ASSET VALUE DCF
63,254 23,906
62,208 26068.79989
39,348
$135.87
36,139
$134.64 $146.23
$138.43
27
Converging Networks
(C$ millions, except per share data) Share Price Consolidated EV/Cash EBIT Multiple Consolidated EV/EBITDA Multiple Consolidated P/E Multiple FCF Yield (NTM, fully taxed) FCF Yield (NTM, actual tax) 1-Year ROR
Current
EV/EBITDA 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E Multiple
1-Year Target
EV/EBITDA Multiple
Value +
Value +
7.53 x 8.00 x
6.00 x 8.00 x
Other
-52.2
-$0.08
0.0
$0.00
Total Gross Asset Value Less: Total Net Debt (Cash) Implied Holding Company Discount FD Shares Outstanding (M) NET ASSET VALUE DCF
2
0.0%
0.0%
25,622
$40.35
22,921
$37.08 $42.03
$38.56
Excludes pension interest expense and pension return on assets. Includes working capital deficit. Enterprise Values calculated using 12 month forward values
28
Converging Networks
Current
EBITDA 2011A 2012 2013 2014E 2015E 2016E EV/EBITDA Multiple
1-Year Target
EV/EBITDA Multiple
Other
1,201 1,201
$0.29 $0.29
1,201 1,201
$0.29 $0.29
Total Gross Asset Value Less: Total Net Debt (Cash) FD Shares Outstanding (M) NET ASSET VALUE DCF
302,301 106,172
324,000 96,481
196,129
$47.42
227,520
$54.96 $55.16
$55.06
29
The following analysts certify that (1) the views expressed in this report in connection with securities or issuers they analyze accurately reflect their personal views and (2) no part of their compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed by them in this report: Andres Coello, and Jeff Fan. This research report was prepared by employees of Scotia Capital Inc. and/or its affiliates who have the title of Analyst. All pricing of securities in reports is based on the closing price of the securities principal marketplace on the night before the publication date, unless otherwise explicitly stated. All Equity Research Analysts report to the Head of Equity Research. The Head of Equity Research reports to the Managing Director, Head of Institutional Equity Sales, Trading and Research, who is not and does not report to the Head of the Investment Banking Department. Scotiabank, Global Banking and Markets has policies that are reasonably designed to prevent or control the sharing of material non-public information across internal information barriers, such as between Investment Banking and Research. The compensation of the research analyst who prepared this report is based on several factors, including but not limited to, the overall profitability of Scotiabank, Global Banking and Markets and the revenues generated from its various departments, including investment banking. Furthermore, the research analyst's compensation is charged as an expense to various Scotiabank, Global Banking and Markets departments, including investment banking. Research Analysts may not receive compensation from the companies they cover. Non-U.S. analysts may not be associated persons of Scotia Capital (USA) Inc. and therefore may not be subject to FINRA Rule 2711 restrictions on communications with subject company, public appearances and trading securities held by the analysts. For Scotiabank, Global Banking and Markets Research analyst standards and disclosure policies, please visit http://www.gbm.scotiabank.com/disclosures Scotiabank, Global Banking and Markets Research, 40 King Street West, 33rd Floor, Toronto, Ontario, M5H 1H1. * B26 B8 B9 G H.P.230 I J M4 Legend Thomas C. O'Neill is a director of BCE Inc. and is a director of The Bank of Nova Scotia. Ronald Brenneman is a director of BCE Inc and is a director of The Bank of Nova Scotia. N. Ashleigh Everett is a director of Manitoba Telecom Services Inc. and is a director of The Bank of Nova Scotia. Scotia Capital (USA) Inc. or its affiliates has managed or co-managed a public offering in the past 12 months. Jay Oduwole, a member of Jay Oduwole's household and/or an account related to Jay Oduwole own securities of this issuer. Scotia Capital (USA) Inc. or its affiliates has received compensation for investment banking services in the past 12 months. Scotia Capital (USA) Inc. or its affiliates expects to receive or intends to seek compensation for investment banking services in the next 3 months. Andres Coello, an analyst, prepared this report and is an employee of the Research Department of
Scotiabank Inverlat, S.A., Institucion de Banca Multiple which forms a part of Grupo Financiero Scotiabank Inverlat. N1 S T U Scotia Capital (USA) Inc. had an investment banking services client relationship during the past 12 months. Scotia Capital Inc. and its affiliates collectively beneficially own in excess of 1% of one or more classes of the issued and outstanding equity securities of this issuer. The Fundamental Research Analyst/Associate has visited material operations of this issuer. Within the last 12 months, Scotia Capital Inc. and/or its affiliates have undertaken an underwriting liability with respect to equity or debt securities of, or have provided advice for a fee with respect to, this issuer.
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Definition of Scotiabank, Global Banking and Markets Equity Research Ratings & Risk Rankings We have a four-tiered rating system, with ratings of Focus Stock, Sector Outperform, Sector Perform, and Sector Underperform. Each analyst assigns a rating that is relative to his or her coverage universe or an index identified by the analyst that includes, but is not limited to, stocks covered by the analyst. Our risk ranking system provides transparency as to the underlying financial and operational risk of each stock covered. Statistical and judgmental factors considered are: historical financial results, share price volatility, liquidity of the shares, credit ratings, analyst forecasts, consistency and predictability of earnings, EPS growth, dividends, cash flow from operations, and strength of balance sheet. The Director of Research and the Supervisory Analyst jointly make the final determination of all risk rankings. The rating assigned to each security covered in this report is based on the Scotiabank, Global Banking and Markets research analysts 12-month view on the security. Analysts may sometimes express to traders, salespeople and certain clients their shorter-term views on these securities that differ from their 12-month view due to several factors, including but not limited to the inherent volatility of the marketplace.
Ratings Risk Rankings
Focus Stock (FS) The stock represents an analysts best idea(s); stocks in this category are expected to significantly outperform the average 12-month total return of the analysts coverage universe or an index identified by the analyst that includes, but is not limited to, stocks covered by the analyst. Sector Outperform (SO) The stock is expected to outperform the average 12-month total return of the analysts coverage universe or an index identified by the analyst that includes, but is not limited to, stocks covered by the analyst. Sector Perform (SP) The stock is expected to perform approximately in line with the average 12-month total return of the analysts coverage universe or an index identified by the analyst that includes, but is not limited to, stocks covered by the analyst. Sector Underperform (SU) The stock is expected to underperform the average 12-month total return of the analysts coverage universe or an index identified by the analyst that includes, but is not limited to, stocks covered by the analyst. Other Ratings Tender Investors are guided to tender to the terms of the takeover offer. Under Review The rating has been temporarily placed under review, until sufficient information has been received and assessed by the analyst.
Low Low financial and operational risk, high predictability of financial results, low stock volatility. Medium Moderate financial and operational risk, moderate predictability of financial results, moderate stock volatility. High High financial and/or operational risk, low predictability of financial results, high stock volatility. Speculative Exceptionally high financial and/or operational risk, exceptionally low predictability of financial results, exceptionally high stock volatility. For risktolerant investors only.
For the purposes of the ratings distribution disclosure FINRA requires members who use a ratings system with terms different than buy, hold/neutral and sell, to equate their own ratings into these categories. Our Focus Stock, Sector Outperform, Sector Perform, and Sector Underperform ratings are based on the criteria above, but for this purpose could be equated to strong buy, buy, neutral and sell ratings, respectively.
Transportation & Aerospace Turan Quettawala, CFA ................................ (416) 863-7065 turan.quettawala@scotiabank.com INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY Hardware & Equipment Daniel Chan, MBA ....................................... (416) 863-7237 daniel.chan@scotiabank.com Software & Services Paul Steep. (416) 945-4310 paul.steep@scotiabank.com LATIN AMERICA Banks, Americas Claudia Benavente A....................................56 (2) 692-6568 claudia.benavente@scotiabank.cl (Scotia Corredores de Bolsa Chile) Construction Paul Figueroa Mantero M.Sc......... 51-(1)-211-6040 x16474 paul.figueroa@scotiabank.com.pe (Scotia Sociedad Agente de Bolsa S.A.) LatAm Telecom & Media Andres Coello. ........................................... 52-55-5123-2852 andres.coello@scotiabank.com (Scotiabank Inverlat) LatAm Consumer Products / Airports Rodrigo Echagaray. ...................................... (416) 945-4405 rodrigo.echagaray@scotiabank.com (Scotia Inverlat Casa de Bolsa) LatAm Utilities Ezequiel Fernndez Lpez.......................... 56-9-9991-9152 ezequiel.fernandez@scotiabank.cl (Scotia Corredores de Bolsa Chile) LatAm Metals & Mining Alfonso Salazar, MSc ............................ 52 (55) 5123 2869 alfonso.salazar@scotiabank.com (Scotiabank Inverlat) MATERIALS Agriculture Christine Healy, CPA, CA ............................. (416) 863-7902 christine.healy@scotiabank.com Global Fertilizers Ben Isaacson, CFA ....................................... (416) 945-5310 ben.isaacson@scotiabank.com Gold & Precious Minerals Tanya Jakusconek, M.Sc ............................. (416) 945-4083 tanya.jakusconek@scotiabank.com Trevor Turnbull, M.Sc ................................... (416) 863-7427 trevor.turnbull@scotiabank.com Ovais Habib .................................................. (416) 863-7141 ovais.habib@scotiabank.com Mike Hocking M.Sc, P.Geo. ......................... (416) 945-5228 ovais.habib@scotiabank.com Metals & Mining Orest Wowkodaw, CPA, CA, CFA. ............. (416) 945-4526 orest.wowkodaw@scotiabank.com Mark Turner, P.Eng. ..................................... (416) 863-7484 mark.turner@scotiabank.com Ben Isaacson, CFA ....................................... (416) 945-5310 ben.isaacson@scotiabank.com Paper & Forest Products Benoit Laprade, CPA, CA, CFA ................... (514) 287-3627 benoit.laprade@scotiabank.com
PORTFOLIO STRATEGY Vincent Delisle, CFA ..................................... (514) 287-3628 vincent.delisle@scotiabank.com Hugo Ste-Marie, CFA ................................... (514) 287-4992 hugo.ste-marie@scotiabank.com REAL ESTATE & REITS Mario Saric, CPA, CA, CFA .......................... (416) 863-7824 mario.saric@scotiabank.com Pammi Bir, CPA, CA, CFA ........................... (416) 863-7218 pammi.bir@scotiabank.com SPECIAL SITUATIONS Anthony Zicha ............................................... (514) 350-7748 anthony.zicha@scotiabank.com George Doumet ........................................... (514) 350-7788 george.doumet@scotiabank.com TELECOMMUNICATION SERVICES Jeff Fan, CPA, CA, CFA ............................... (416) 863-7780 jeff.fan@scotiabank.com ECONOMICS Warren Jestin ................................................ (416) 866-6136 Aron Gampel ................................................. (416) 866-6259 Pablo Brard ................................................. (416) 862-3876 Derek Holt ..................................................... (416) 863-7707 Patricia Mohr ................................................. (416) 866-4210 Mary Webb.................................................... (416) 866-4202 PORTFOLIO ADVISORY GROUP (PAG) (SCOTIAMCLEOD) Chief Investment Officer & Co-Head of PAG Shane Jones ................................................. (416) 945-5332 Co-Head of PAG: Stewart Hunt ................................................. (416) 863-2855 Trading Elliott Fishman .............................................. (416) 863-7860 Dave Stephens ............................................. (416) 862-3115 Tara Quinn .................................................... (416) 863-7149 Portfolio Manager: Shane Jones ................................................. (416) 945-5332 Caroline Escott, CFA ................................... (416) 945-5332 Equity Advisory Himalaya Jain, CFA ...................................... (416) 863-7604 Marco Martin ................................................ (416) 863-7921 Warren Hastings ........................................... (416) 865-6354 Fixed Income Advisory Andrew Mystic............................................... (416) 863-7474 INSTITUTIONAL EQUITY SALES & TRADING Toronto .......................................................... (416) 863-2885 1-888-251-4484 Montreal ........................................................ (514) 287-4513 New York.................................................. (212) 225-6605/04 1-800-262-4060 Boston ........................................................... (617) 330-1477 Mexico City, MX ................................ 011-52-55-9179-5181 (Scotia Inverlat Casa de Bolsa) London, U.K. ..................................... 011-44-207-826-5919 Singapore...................................................... (65) 6305-8350 (65) 6305-8347
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