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Click here to see Feinberg and chief film critic Todd McCarthy’s picks for who will and should win in the film categories.
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Best Series, Drama
SHOULD WIN:Â Lovecraft Country
The Crown may be consistent, but Lovecraft Country — with its delirious mixture of smart racial commentary and boisterous horror — has higher highs than any show in this category.
WILL WIN:Â The Crown
First-time nominations abound, for Ozark, Lovecraft Country, The Mandalorian and Ratched. But, with a leading six noms (five for acting), The Crown‘s fourth season will win like its first.
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Best Series, Musical or Comedy
SHOULD WIN:Â Ted Lasso
Other than Emily in Paris, it’s a solid category of both genre-bending hourlongs and sentimental half-hours. The advantage goes to the bighearted salve audiences required in 2020.
WILL WIN:Â The Great
Schitt’s Creek‘s sixth season brings its first series nom. The Emmys gave it everything, and the HFPA hates to follow, so bet on The Flight Attendant, The Great or Ted Lasso, rookies all.
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Best Actress, Drama
SHOULD WIN: Laura Linney
Emma Corrin’s star-making turn in The Crown feels more like a supporting performance, so give the edge to Laura Linney, who gave Ozark‘s third season some previously unavailable emotional heft
WILL WIN:Â Emma Corrin
Killing Eve‘s Jodie Comer and Ozark‘s Laura Linney haven’t won yet for their shows and won’t start now. The HFPA loves Olivia Colman, but they’ll anoint her young Crown co-star.Â
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Best Actor, Drama
SHOULD WIN: Bob Odenkirk
Bob Odenkirk had his best season yet on Better Call Saul, peaking in an ambitious episode in which he spent the full hour lugging a duffle bag of cash around the New Mexico desert in mid-summer.
WILL WIN:Â Matthew Rhys
Jason Bateman and Bob Odenkirk are perennial bridesmaids. Hunters‘ Al Pacino may be tempting, but this likely will go to The Crown‘s Josh O’Connor or Perry Mason‘s Matthew Rhys. Flip a coin!Â
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Best Actress, Musical or Comedy
SHOULD WIN:Â Jane Levy
In Zoey’s Extraordinary Playlist, Jane Levy has to sing, dance, drag viewers through an emotional ringer and make you believe that a broadcast show in 2021 is worthy of award recognition.
WILL WIN:Â Kaley CuocoÂ
Catherine O’Hara has her Emmy, and Jane Levy is her show’s sole rep. There’s support for The Great‘s Elle Fanning, but The Flight Attendant‘s Kaley Cuoco’s noms morning reaction sealed the deal.
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Best Actor, Musical or Comedy
SHOULD WIN:Â Jason Sudeikis
Jason Sudeikis took a character who could have been a cartoon and made him feel real. Ted Lasso doesn’t always have high stakes, but it’s the earnest lead who makes you care.
WILL WIN:Â Jason Sudeikis
The HFPA won’t follow the Emmys with Eugene Levy. So? The Great isn’t solely dependent on Nicholas Hoult, but Ted Lasso is on Jason Sudeikis. Apple TV+ will get on the board.
This story first appeared in the Feb. 24 issue of The Hollywood Reporter magazine. Click here to subscribe.
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