Scott Garrett
Scott Garrett, NJ. 5th Cong. District is shown meeting witth the Express-Times Editorial Board Oct 17, 2014
(Sue Beyer | lehighvalleylive.com)
TRENTON — A new poll has some good news for Scott Garrett, the Republican congressman who appeared to be losing ground to his Democratic challenger.
The Monmouth University survey of 427 likely voters in northern New Jersey's 5th Congressional District, released today, shows Garrett leading Democrat Roy Cho, a corporate attorney, by 11 points among likely voters, up 5 points from a poll two weeks ago.
"This race was flying under the radar just one month ago. Garrett was running a phone-it-in campaign that was compounded by a misstep around Sandy recovery. The incumbent is now much more engaged in the race," said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute. "While Cho has run a strong campaign, the national environment, as well as the underlying fundamentals of this district, are too favorable to Republicans for him to overcome a full Garrett offensive without outside help from national Democrats. That help never materialized, but it may not have been enough this year once Garrett swung into campaign mode."
Election Day is Nov. 4.
Fifty-two percent of voters say they'll support Garrett, up from 48 percent two weeks ago. Forty-two percent back Cho, down from 43 percent.
The poll shows Garrett has taken a lead with independents, and that Garrett has a lead — if a narrow one — in Bergen County, which dominates the district and contains the moderate Republican voters Cho is attempting to win over.
Democrat Roy Cho is shown in running against U.S. Rep. Scott Garrett (R-5th Dist.)
Garrett has a huge lead in the more conservative western part of the district, which includes parts of Sussex and Warren Counties. The poll also shows that voters’ now have a more favorable impression of Garrett than they did two weeks ago. And while Cho is seen favorably by 30 percent – similar to two weeks ago – the number of voters with an unfavorable view of him has increased from 7 percent to 16 percent.
"Congressman Garrett takes no election for granted and continues to work hard to reach each and every voter, sharing his ideas to grow our economy and help businesses create more jobs," Garrett spokeswoman Maggie Seidel said. "New Jerseyans are eager to get our economy back on track, and the people of the Fifth District know that Scott Garrett is the best man for that job."
But Cho spokesman Derek Roseman said the poll doesn't reflect reality.
"The numbers simply do not match the reality we see and hear every day," Roseman said. "There is growing excitement and momentum for Roy Cho, from Democrats and from independents and moderate Republicans who are tired of Scott Garrett's smears. This race will be won on the ground on Tuesday. We are as confident as ever heading into Election Day."
The poll was conducted from Oct. 27-29 and has a margin of error of plus-or-minus 4.8 percentage points.
Matt Friedman may be reached at mfriedman@njadvancemedia.com. Follow him on Twitter @MattFriedmanSL. Find NJ.com on Facebook.