Fact or Fiction on All of MLB's Hottest Free-Agency, Trade Rumors

The postseason isn't over, the World Series hasn't even started yet, but Major League Baseball's hot stove is heating up already.

Rumors have begun cropping up, so now is a good time to address them early on and play a little fact or fiction with the speculation that's out there.

Forecasting can be fun, even if there's plenty still left to play out before all the transaction action really starts picking up.

Nick Cafardo of The Boston Globe spells out Victor Martinez's fate as such: "This may not be a J.J. Hardy situation where he signs before free agency. But we do know this, according to a major league source familiar with Martinez: He prefers to work something out with the Tigers, so they will get first crack at him."

Detroit would love to have Martinez back, too, especially since there's a strong possibility that either/both right-hander Max Scherzer and/or outfielder Torii Hunter could be gone.

Thing is, the switch-hitting first baseman/designated hitter will turn 36 before the year is over and just had the best season of his 12-year career. In other words, Martinez almost has to test the market, even if the Tigers are planning to use their exclusive negotiating window to try to retain him.

Verdict: Fiction, because this is Martinez's last shot at a big-money, multiyear contract, so he has to at least let things play out to see what he can get, even if he ultimately returns to the Tigers.

Simply put, Nelson Cruz overplayed his hand last year because he was coming off a performance-enhancing drug suspension and was tied to draft-pick compensation after rejecting a qualifying offer from the Texas Rangers. All of that forced him to settle for a one-year, $8 million deal with the Baltimore Orioles. He'll do better this time around.

Cruz, who led the majors with 40 home runs, is going to be extended a QO again, according to Jon Heyman of CBS Sports, and that's worth $15.3 million this year. Although he'll want a multiyear pact—perhaps the last one of the 34-year-old's career—Cruz could become the first player to actually accept the QO ever, especially with his interest in staying, per Roch Kubatko of MASN Sports.

There is another option, though, which involves the Orioles proposing a two- or three-year deal worth slightly below the $15.3 per in order to keep Cruz around and happy longer term. Given that they may decline the $17.5 million option on Nick Markakis, as Heyman reports, the Orioles could have extra incentive to hang on to Cruz.

Verdict: Fact, because Cruz would like to come back, so it's possible the two sides will agree on some sort of deal to make both sides happy—less per-year salary for the Orioles but more years for Cruz.

The big news that came out this week surrounding Japanese right-hander Kenta Maeda is that after loads of speculation that he would be in the major leagues in 2015, he might not be posted after all, according to The Japan Times.

Even though there are other big-name starters with great big league resumes about to reach free agency—Max Scherzer, Jon Lester and James Shields are at the top of that class—it would be a shame not to have Maeda in the mix, too.

One of the best pitchers in Japan's Nippon Professional Baseball for the past handful of seasons, the 26-year-old put up a 2.56 ERA and 1.08 WHIP in 2014—and those were his worst marks in those categories since 2009.

Thing is, the Hiroshima Carp appear to be wavering on whether to grant permission for Maeda to come over before he's a free agent (after the 2017 season). "We have the right," owner Hajime Matsuda said of Maeda. "We would like to let him go, but based on his production this year it will be difficult."

Still, the most money Hiroshima could gain by posting Maeda under the new rules is $20 million, and even after a "down" year, it's all but guaranteed that a large number of MLB clubs would pay that amount for a chance to negotiate with Maeda, who projects as a mid-rotation arm.

Verdict: Fiction, although this admittedly is more of a guess, but we went through a similar will-he-won't-he with Masahiro Tanaka last winter, and he wound up being posted.

Having been declared a free agent in early October, Yasmany Tomas is the latest in what has become a line of Cuban defectors headed for the major leagues—and a big, big payday.

The power-hitting outfielder is 23 years old and played in Cuba's professional league, the Serie Nacional, which makes him exempt from MLB's international signing limit. In other words, Tomas is going to get paid.

Plus, there are already a number of teams interested, including the New York Mets, Philadelphia Phillies, Texas Rangers and World Series-bound San Francisco Giants, according to Chris Cotillo of MLB Daily Dish. The power-starved San Diego Padres also are in the mix, having held a workout for Tomas recently, per Jesse Sanchez of MLB.com.

Back in August, the Boston Red Sox gave fellow outfielder Rusney Castillo a record $72.5 million contract for a Cuban signee. The expectation is that Tomas, who is younger and has more pop—two traits teams will pay a premium for—could top $75 million. In fact, he could have that amount on the table already, according to George A. King of the New York Post.

Verdict: Fact, especially given the explosion of salaries in this market since Aroldis Chapman, Yoenis Cespedes, Yasiel Puig and Jose Abreu came over and had immediate success.

You only have to read—and not even between the lines or anything—what Tigers general manager Dave Dombrowski said in his season-ending press conference, per Jason Beck of MLB.com, to know that right-hander Max Scherzer is all but on his way out:

Well, we had thorough conversations before the season, and I don’t know that it's all dictated by us at this point. I think we made ourselves pretty well known at that time where we stood. ... It's apparent that his representative wanted him to test free agency. And that comes up in a couple weeks. ... I think we probably made more of an effort to sign Max earlier in the year. So I don't think your odds improve [from] what they were earlier. Why would they improve if we have one-on-one ability to speak with you, compared to having 29 other clubs speak with you?

Sounds like a man who knows the 30-year-old reigning AL Cy Young winner won't be back. Not when the Tigers already have a deep rotation and Scherzer is going to have his pick of team and contract.

Verdict: Fact, Scherzer's days in Detroit started being numbered the instant he turned down the $144 million extension last winter.

Statistics are accurate through Oct. 16 and courtesy of MLB.com, Baseball-Reference and FanGraphs, unless otherwise noted.

To talk baseball or fantasy baseball, check in with me on Twitter: @JayCat11.