A tradition of racial allegiance and a strong showing by Vietnamese voters in ballots already cast in Tuesday’s election could put ethnicity ahead of campaign money in the race to become the newest member of the Orange County Board of Supervisors.
More residents of Vietnamese heritage have voted than residents of any other ethnicity in the battle to fill the 1st District seat, and they’re outpacing Latino voters nearly 3-to-1, according to data compiled by Political Data Inc.
“The Vietnamese vote by mail, they vote a lot and they vote ethnic,” said Fred Smoller, an associate professor of political science at Chapman University, “Even with all the money, I don’t think that’s going to change their minds.”
Paul Mitchell, vice president of Political Data Inc., declined to predict who will win, but he and other experts acknowledge a tradition of Vietnamese voters strongly supporting Vietnamese candidates.
And if tradition stands, that may be a problem for former state Sen. Lou Correa, a Democrat who has more campaign money than any other candidate but could be troubled by not only the lack of Latino voters but an already small showing by Democrats.
Although Democrats make up 47 percent of the county’s absentee voters, they’ve submitted just 37 percent of the ballots cast so far.
Meanwhile, the ballots of Asian American voters, who make up 24 percent of the district’s registered voters and 29 percent of mail-in voters, account for 46 percent of the ballots sent for the 1st District seat.
“All those things suggest a Vietnamese victory,” Smoller said.
Correa resigned from the same seat in 2006 after being elected to the state Senate. He would return to a changed district, where the powerful Vietnamese voting block has grown and Latino residents have shown increasing reluctance to vote in the same numbers. They had the lowest turnout in the 34th District state Senate race in which Janet Nguyen defeated Jose Solorio to become the first Vietnamese American elected to the California state Senate.
Vietnamese Americans’ ballots outnumbered those from Latinos by more than 2-to-1, though the district has 20 percent more Latino voters than Vietnamese American voters.
History appears to be repeating itself, according to Political Data, but Correa told the Register he isn’t concerned.
“I don’t campaign based on any specific group,” Correa said. “I work on retail politics, which means one vote at a time, irrespective of what you look like, irrespective of your age.”
Correa, 57, also must counter the momentum from Nguyen’s November success. Nguyen has endorsed and campaigned for Andrew Do, 51, a former Garden Grove city councilman and her chief of staff on two occasions when she was 1st District supervisor.
Other candidates include Chris Phan, a 41-year-old Republican who was elected to the Garden Grove City Council in 2012, Chuyen Van Nguyen, 65, an anchor for VNA-TV, and Lupe Morfin-Moreno, 57, an office specialist with Orange County Health Care Agency and longtime anti-immigration advocate.
But one expert who studies Asian American politics cites a key attribute Do has that the others don’t: wide support from a diverse group of established politicians. It’s what boosted Nguyen to the state Senate, and it’s what could set Do apart in a district considered one of the nation’s most mature in terms of Vietnamese American politics.
“If you were a candidate who said, ‘Well, I need to get the Vietnamese American vote,’ – That’s the old way,” said James Lai, a professor of ethnic studies and political science at Santa Clara University. “You have to figure out how to win these big elections, and you can’t do it by focusing on your own communities.”
Nguyen built a much broader support network to win the state Senate seat, and she’s introduced Do as her protege. He served as her chief of staff from 2007 to 2010, and he owned Lee’s Sandwiches in Stanton with her husband, Tom Bonikowski, before he bought the entire business, selling it in 2012. He was elected to the Garden Grove City Council in 2008 and resigned in 2011.
News reports at the time cited problems with the sandwich shop, but Do told the Register his life had become too hectic since his wife was appointed to a Superior Court judgeship. He said he sold the sandwich shop in 2012 because he wanted to return to law.
Do returned as Nguyen’s chief of staff last year and also works for law firm FitzGerald Yap Kreditor in Irvine. Four of the lawyers who work there have donated a total of approximately $6,000 to his campaign.
The money is part of $66,574 that Do has raised, with $37,324 in the last two weeks. He’s also lent himself $40,000, but he’s spent much more. Campaign finance forms list $123,000 in unpaid bills. If he’s elected, he’ll have a much better chance of raising more money to pay them off, but he told the Register he did so intending to pay them using his own money.
“It would be kind of foolhardy for anyone to go into a race facing any kind of good opponent thinking they’re going to win,” Do said.
The money has allowed Do to run a campaign generally comparable to that of Correa, who’s raised nearly $65,000 in the last six weeks and also has nearly $200,000 left over from his state Senate bids.
Meanwhile, Phan, who took a leave of absence from his job with the Orange County District Attorney’s Office to pursue his campaign, has lent himself $35,000 and raised nearly $34,000. He has no unpaid bills and told the Register he’s relying on door-to-door campaigning.
“I’m just going to walk until the very last, bitter hour,” Phan said.
Morfin-Moreno has raised no money. Van Nguyen has lent himself $7,000 and reported no donations, though he hasn’t filed the latest forms as required. Registrar officials say they’ve sent him a letter asking him to do so.
Registrar Neal Kelley said Friday he expects 75 to 80 percent of voters will cast mail ballots. As of last week, 21,824 mail ballots had been returned to the Registrar of Voters office.
The district, which includes more than 600,000 residents, takes in Westminster, Garden Grove, Fountain Valley and parts of Santa Ana. The area, Lai said, can sustain multiple minority candidates and still elect one, where as years ago they may have crossed each other out.
“That’s a door they’ve just recently been able to enter,” Lai said.
Nguyen’s popularity in the recent state Senate race could be a huge factor. She and Do share many supporters and similar campaign teams, and Do plans to offer her traditional election night party at Azteca Mexican restaurant in Garden Grove.
“If there’s a time when we have an emergency in our community, this is it,” Nguyen said Tuesday on VNCR Radio on 106.3 FM, as translated by the Voice of OC.
Nguyen was responding to the recent firings of two employees at the County Community Service Center she opened seven years ago on Magnolia Street in Little Saigon. County spokeswoman Jean Pasco declined to say why the two were dismissed, but news reports said they were campaigning for Do on county time. Nguyen urged Vietnamese constituents not to split their votes and rally behind Do.
“Throughout its existence, the CCSC has only gotten a 3-2 vote on the Board of Supervisors,” Nguyen wrote in an email to the Register. “Any attempt to tamper with the staffing of this office, especially while the First District does not have a County Supervisor to speak for it, should raise a red flag.”
Pasco said county officials have no plans to close the office. The lease doesn’t end until 2017.
Contact the writer: mcuniff@ocregister.com or 949-492-5122. Twitter: @meghanncuniff
