Michel Barnier has told the British government that he fears Boris Johnson’s polarising behaviour has effectively blown any chance of finding a majority for a Brexit deal in the Commons.
In private discussions with the Brexit secretary, Stephen Barclay, the EU’s chief negotiator said that developments in Westminster had damaged the already slim hope of winning MPs over.
According to a leaked note of the meeting, Barnier spoke of the “limited chance of approval of a deal in the current parliament” given recent events, an assertion with which Barclay disagreed, insisting a majority could be found.
Barnier concluded, however, in a briefing to EU diplomats for the 27 member states, that the “current polarisation in the UK has further reduced the chances of agreement”, according to minutes seen by the Observer.
The EU is now concerned that any concession it could make would be wasted on such an unstable government, which has burned any political goodwill by deploying the language of betrayal and surrender when talking of those who oppose a no-deal Brexit.
On Saturday, a senior SNP MP, Stewart Hosie, claimed that opposition parties could stage a vote of no confidence in the government as early as this week in an effort to thwart leaving the EU without a deal.
It is unlikely the Liberal Democrats and the 21 Tory rebels would agree to Jeremy Corbyn, as leader of the opposition, leading such a government. But the machinations further confirmed to Brussels that Johnson has “lost control of events”, senior EU sources said.
The behaviour of the prime minister last week in the Commons, where he described fears of Labour MPs about their safety as “humbug”, surprised EU officials and diplomats who had hoped the UK was serious about striking a deal.
There is now concern that the government is seeking simply to ramp up a “blame game”, sources said, with the chances of an agreement now seen as being “very low”.
“If he was going to compromise himself to find a deal with us, you would not be talking up the word ‘surrender’ all the time”, said one EU diplomat.
“Just when you think that it could not be less stable – something else happens. This isn’t very diplomatic language – it is mad,” said a second EU source.
Barclay told Barnier that the UK would table concrete proposals on Thursday, after the prime minister has made his speech at the Conservative party conference.
The UK insists that the status quo cannot continue on the island of Ireland in a post-Brexit scenario but that the extra checks and controls can be done away from the border.
Barnier told diplomats for the EU27 last week that the UK had “given up on the concept of preventing a border in Northern Ireland as well as the necessity of preserving the all-island economy”.
He told the diplomats: “You can’t base peace on promises – it will turn the border into a bargaining chip.”
The EU’s capitals, in response, have expressed their “alarm” to Barnier at the prime minister’s “cavalier” attitude towards the Northern Ireland peace process.
Johnson’s discussions in New York with Donald Tusk, the European Council president, have led the member states to conclude that there is a “deliberate choice in London to bring back a border”, which would “imperil stability”, sources said.
Barnier also rejected Barclay’s attempts last Friday to open up talks about contingency plans in the event of a no-deal Brexit., to the British government’s notable frustration, sources said.
The Brexit secretary had insisted that on his visits to EU capitals, a desire had been voiced for bilateral talks on how to manage the risks of leaving the EU without a deal.
The EU negotiator told the member states that the UK was looking to deliver the same benefits of the withdrawal agreement “but by different means”.
In a letter exchange with Barclay, published last Friday evening, Barnier told the Brexit secretary: “We will not enter into any negotiations with the United Kingdom on these matters.” He said the only offer he could make to the UK was to answer any specific questions it had over the EU’s unilateral plans to protect itself from the chaos.