At 11am on Friday a meeting of one of the government’s scientific advisory groups was opened by its chairman, Professor Peter Horby.
Two hours later it was obvious to everyone on the teleconference call that the coronavirus pandemic had taken a dramatic turn for the worse. The minutes of the New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats Advisory Group (Nervtag) lay out the case for concern in stark and terrifying detail.
The new variant, VUI-202012/01, appeared to be significantly more transmissible, and could drive the R value up by as much as 0.93. Just as worrying was what the scientists admitted they did not know, including whether the new variant could undo a lot of the immunity built up so far.
One paper noted that