Deloitte is releasing its “Technology, Media & Telecommunications Predictions 2014” this morning and it is 80 pages of solid reading. The main report provides a global perspective, but there are predictions that provide a focus on trends in Canada.
Among the highlights of the report are Canada’s top 10 predictions:
- Phablet are not a Phad
- Deloitte predicts that in 2014 shipments of phablets, smartphones with 5.0-6.9 inch screens, will represent a quarter of smartphones sold
- Wearables: the eyes have it
- Deloitte predicts that smart glasses, fitness bands and watches, should sell about 10 million units in 2014
- Doubling up on pay TV
- Deloitte predicts that by the end of 2014 up to 50 million homes around the world will have two or more separate pay-television subscriptions
- Narrowing the gap: seniors embrace the smartphone
- Deloitte predicts that in 2014, the over-55s will be the age group experiencing the fastest year-on-year rises in smartphone penetration across developed markets
- eVisits: the 21st century housecall
- Deloitte predicts that in 2014, there will be 100 million eVisits globally, potentially saving over $5 billion when compared to the cost of in-person doctor visits and representing growth of 400 percent from 2012 levels
- Massive Open Online Courses (MOOCs): not disruptive yet, but the future looks bright
- Deloitte predicts that by 2014, student registrations in MOOCs will be up 100 percent compared to 2012 to over 10 million courses, but the low completion rates mean that less than 0.2 percent of all courses completed in 2014 will be MOOCs
- Death of the voice call – but only for some
- Deloitte predicts that in 2014 that about 10-20% of Canadian cellular customers will spend only 3-4 minutes per day talking on their phones
- Those who like TV like it a lot
- Deloitte predicts that by the end of 2014, the 20 percent of English-speaking Canadians who watch the fewest minutes of traditional TV (both live and playback ) will fall to just over 30 minutes per day, down from nearly 60 minutes in 2004
- The Converged Living Room: a plateau approaches
- Deloitte predicts that global sales of smartphones, tablets, PCs, TV sets and videogame consoles will exceed $750 billion in 2014, up $50 billion from 2013 and almost double the 2010 total
- TV sports rights: extra premium
- Deloitte predicts that in 2014 the value of premium sports broadcast rights worldwide will increase to $24.2 billion, a 14 percent rise, or $2.9 billion over 2013
The list above provides just the opening teaser for each of Deloitte’s predictions. Many of the items have interesting, but not necessarily intuitive twists associated with them. For example, the decline in TV viewing by the bottom quintile of viewers will have virtually no effect on the average English Canadian TV viewing of 3.8 hours per day, expected to change by less than 10 minutes (up or down) versus the same period in 2013. And, French-speaking Quebecers who watch the least TV are predicted to watch about 70 minutes daily, unchanged from 2004 levels, attributed to the lower availability of over-the-top content.
What are the implications and opportunities that arise from these trends?
The full report is packed with data, references and colour commentary. Try to attend one of the Deloitte briefing sessions taking place across the country this month, starting today in Toronto. Be sure to follow Duncan Stewart, Director of Research for Deloitte Canada, on Twitter.