The question that has occupied my mind in the previous few weeks is whether the divide between the state and national polling can keep up. State polls had suggested that Mitt Romney has rough road to 270 electoral votes, while the national polls actually had him ahead of President Obama.
The Gallup organization did nothing to discourage this discussion when it put out a poll Wednesday afternoon that had the Twitterverse churning: Mitt Romney leading by 6 points among likely voters and by 2 points among registered voters. Let me state right now that this poll result is almost certainly not correct. That doesn't mean we should toss it aside, however.
Not every poll published is going to be right on the average, and they shouldn't be. In a race where Romney is ahead by a point or tied with Obama, we should expect a few polls where he leads by more than 1 point and a few where Obama leads. That's why we had an ABC/Washington Post survey with Obama leading by 3 points and the Gallup poll with Romney ahead by 6. The polls cluster around where the true result is.
Some might say that the Gallup poll demonstrates momentum for Romney, but the truth is that, with the exception of the immediate aftermath of the first debate, the national polls indicate that neither candidate is gaining or losing ground. Romney has gained ground in Gallup, Public Policy Polling, and YouGov surveys. Obama has picked up steam in Ipsos, IBD/TIPP, and the ABC/Washington Post poll. The GWU Battleground and Rasmussen surveys have been fairly stable. Random variation is not surprising, and we are seeing it in both directions. That indicates a race that really isn't moving.
The same thing can be said about state polling: outliers occur. The Marquette University Law School has Obama leading Romney by only 1 point in the state of Wisconsin, after the prior pre-first debate poll had Obama ahead by 11. That seems like a massive jump, but keep in mind that other polls at the time of Marquette's previous release had the race in the mid single digits. Given how Romney gained about 4 points nationally after the first debate, we would expect Obama to lead in the low single digits in Wisconsin. The Real Clear Politics average has him ahead by 2 and the Marquette poll matches this average.
The close race in Wisconsin does point to a potential danger sign for the president. The gap between the national and state polls doesn't seem nearly as wide as it once was. Tuesday, I outlined three paths that could lead to Romney winning the electoral college. Today, Obama's team confirmed to the National Journal's Major Garrett that their polling seems to affirm most of what I wrote.
Obama is, apparently, not counting on Colorado, Florida, North Carolina, or Virginia. The states around which they are looking to build a firewall are Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, and Ohio. That means that Obama's path is to win Ohio and either Iowa or Nevada. Romney can get to a 269-269 tie with Iowa and Nevada, or a win with either these two states and New Hampshire, or by winning Ohio outright.
Notice how Obama's team didn't include Wisconsin.
Wisconsin is a state where the polls are tight, but neither campaign seems to be making a move. It could be that it's a case where the race is tight, while support for the candidates is solid, as I pointed out Tuesday and my buddy Nate Cohn provided greater detail on Wednesday. Obama has not dipped below 49% in any Wisconsin poll since mid-August: 49% won't win him Wisconsin, but it'll get him very, very close.
I can't take Wisconsin too seriously as a toss-up until I start seeing more candidate visits. The seeming tightening in the polls may prompt it. If it does, then Romney picks up an additional path if we allow for wins also in Colorado, Florida, North Carolina, and Virginia. All he'll need is Wisconsin and either Iowa, or Nevada, or New Hampshire. In this scenario, Romney wouldn't have to take Ohio.
Overall, we seem to be hitting a standstill of some type. Obama and Romney are close to even nationally. Obama holds leads in enough states to win the electoral college. Romney needs to catch up in these states, but he may consolidate a higher baseline before we start assigning true toss-ups to the candidates. We'll have to wait and see if the second debate, and then the third debate, make a difference. If they don't, it looks like we'll be on the edge of our seat right up to election day.