We’re likely to see a considerable amount of turnover on Capitol Hill this November because of redistricting and retirement. But unlike the anti-Democratic wave of 2010, the current election cycle does not appear to be a particularly risky year for incumbents of either party.
In the Senate, three at-risk Democrats, Bill Nelson of Florida, Sherrod Brown of Ohio and Claire McCaskill of Missouri, are now favored because of opposition vulnerabilities.
Among the six incumbent governors seeking another term, only one — Earl Ray Tomblin of West Virginia — is in even remote danger of defeat.
The House is where sitting members are facing the greatest peril. Partisan redistricting plans drawn up by Democrats in Illinois and Maryland, and by Republicans in Georgia and North Carolina, leave nearly a dozen targeted incumbents in serious jeopardy. What’s more, the new House maps for New York, where Republicans picked up a nation-leading five seats last election, leave most of those GOP freshman in trouble. And California’s nonpartisan redistricting plan has caused major headaches for incumbents in both parties. Some fled into retirement; others are battling for their survival in November.
Here is a rundown on ten of the most endangered incumbents of 2012:
Rep. Joe Walsh (R-Illinois)
He’s a brash Tea Party freshman whose 2010 election was widely considered a fluke. Democrats redrew his district to eliminate him from the Illinois delegation. And they recruited a very strong candidate, Iraq War hero (and former Department of Veterans Affairs official) Tammy Duckworth. Walsh will need a miracle to win a second term.
Rep. Roscoe Bartlett (R-Maryland)
After watching this conservative doctor win re-election for two decades in a very Democratic state, Democratic lawmakers in Annapolis divided Bartlett’s Republican-leaning, western Maryland district into two pieces and added a significant number of voters from suburban (and liberal) Montgomery County. The incumbent’s Tea Party sensitivities are anathema to his new liberal constituents. And Bartlett’s inflammatory comments recently about abortion could provide the nail in his political coffin.
Rep. Jeff Landry (R-Louisiana)
Louisiana lost a congressional seat, thanks largely to population loss following Hurricane Katrina. And because Republicans control all but one of the state’s House seats, it’s a Republican who will lose the game of musical chairs. The rivals are two incumbents: Charles Boustany and Jeff Landry. Boustany, a favorite of the GOP House leadership, has raised far more money than his fellow congressman. If no candidate wins a majority on Nov. 6, there will be a December runoff to settle things.
Rep. Ann Marie Buerkle (R-New York)
Of the five New York Republicans in trouble this year, none is in deeper trouble than Tea Party freshman Anne Marie Buerkle. For one thing, she won by only 700 votes in a very, very Republican year. For another, she faces a rematch against former Rep. Dan Maffei. This district is really two districts: a Democratic bastion in Syracuse and Republican rural areas. With Barack Obama leading by nearly 30 percentage points in New York, Buerkle needs to make sure that dispirited Republicans make sure they come to the polls.
Rep. John Barrow (D-Georgia)
Augusta Democrat John Barrow survived a near-death political experience in 2008, and Republicans are going to make sure that he doesn’t pull off another narrow escape in 2012. To hasten his demise, Georgia’s GOP legislature took advantage of redistricting to make the district more Republican. Republican state Rep. Lee Anderson is doing his best to tie Barrow to the Democratic president, who is headed for a big defeat in Georgia. Barrow is doing his best to tie Anderson to the eventual voucherization of Medicare proposed by GOP vice presidential candidate Paul Ryan.
Rep. Larry Kissell (D-North Carolina)
Like Barrow, North Carolina Rep. Larry Kissell hung on to his seat in 2010 only to face re-election in a district made far more Republican by a GOP legislature. They took African American neighborhoods in Charlotte out of the former social studies teacher’s district and added heavily Republican suburban and rural areas. Kissell is stressing his independence (and his vote against President Obama’s health-care reform law) in a district that cast 63 percent of its votes for George W. Bush and 57 percent for John McCain in the past two presidential elections.
Rep. Leonard Boswell (D-Iowa)
Reapportionment cost Iowa one of its five congressional seats, and redistricting made three of the four remaining seats competitive. The incumbent at greatest risk is veteran Democrat Leonard Boswell, who is an underdog against Republican fellow congressman Tom Latham, who holds a major cash advantage going into the fall election season. Both incumbents are well-known and well-liked. Boswell is hoping for a heavy Democratic turnout for President Obama to save this seat.
Sen. Jon Tester (D-Montana)
The freshman Democrat faces a stiff challenge in a state where Republican Mitt Romney is expected to win comfortably. The Republican nominee, congressman Denny Rehberg, is a popular and tested statewide candidate.
Rep. Bob Dold (R-Illinois)
Joe Walsh is not the only Illinois Republican in trouble. Four other GOP freshmen were targeted by Democrats who control the Illinois legislature. Bob Dold, a freshman from the Chicago area, was placed in a heavily Democratic district represented by liberal Rep. Jan Schakowsky. Dold solved his problem by moving to the neighboring district where most of his current constituents live. His race with Democratic management consultant Brad Schneider is highly competitive. The fate of the Illinois Five could depend on the margin of President Obama’s victory in his home state.
Rep. David Rivera (R-Florida)
There’s nothing like a criminal investigation to turn an incumbent from a favorite into an embattled underdog. The South Florida media is aggressively pursuing allegations that the Republican lawmaker may have funded (in cash) an obscure Democratic primary candidate in a ham-handed attempt to defeat a stronger opponent. Having failed to influence the Democratic primary, Rivera’s political team now must face the music, as well as energized Democrat Joe Garcia.