Want to know how people feel about President Obama's gun control plan?
Simply ask whether they approve or disapprove of how the president and his administration are doing their job. The two questions are nearly perfectly linked, and that could have major consequences for the future of gun control legislation.
The latest ABC/Washington Post polls prove the strong relationship. Many individual gun proposals are highly popular. In fact, seven tested gun measures, including background checks and bans on assault weapons and semi-automatic handguns, have majority support ranging from 51% to 88%.
When you attach Obama's name by calling it "Barack Obama's proposals", the Post discovered that 53% of Americans favor the proposals – nearly identical to Obama's approval rating of 55% in a separate Post poll last week. Gallup found the same, with 53% in favor of Obama's gun control plan, compared to his monthly approval rating of 52%.
Drill down to specific demographics and the link between approval of the gun plan and approval of Obama's administration becomes even clearer. Neither the Post nor Gallup asked about the plan or Obama's approval in the same poll. The Post did, however, enquire about Joe Biden's favorability. Biden's net favorable of +11 percentage points is very close to Obama's net approval rating of +14pt from the prior poll, meaning that the two are closely correlated.
[Note: we test Biden because we are examining small sub-samples and the sampling error on margins (for example, for favorable minus unfavorable) of less than 350 people is about 10pt or greater, which makes comparing different poll sub-samples difficult. By restricting ourselves to the same sample of people, as we can with Biden's favorables and the gun package, we can compare the answers among the exact same group of respondents.]
Among the 24 subgroups tested, the correlation between a subgroup's opinion towards Joe Biden and Obama's gun plan is 0.98 – nearly perfect. Moreoever, 95% of the differences in subgroup net favorables on Obama's gun plan are predicted by their respective opinions of Biden. You rarely see two variables this closely linked. That's even higher than the strong explanatory power that evangelical voting had in forecasting the Republican primary.
The median difference between a group's opinion towards Biden versus Obama's gun package is 2pt, which matches the 1pt difference between favorability for Biden and Obama's gun control package overall. That's ridiculously small. It means that if a respondent liked Biden, who substitutes for the administration, then the person liked the gun plan. Among independent voters, Biden's net favorable is +5pt, and the net favorable impression of Obama's plan is +7pt. Republican responders register -51pt net favorables for both. Among region, the median difference is only 3pt. Biden, for example, had a net favorable of +12pt in the south, while Obama's gun plan had a favorable of +10pt. In the battleground of the midwest, Biden stood at +4pt and Obama's gun plan was at +5pt net favorable.
So much for the correlation, but what does it mean for the future of gun control legislation?
In short, it means the gun control debate is likely heading in the direction of healthcare. In that political fight, as with this one, individual proposals polled well, but attaching Obama's name to a proposal polarized opinion.
The key difference this time is that the net approval for Obama and his administration is about 14pt higher than it was when the healthcare bill passed in March 2010. That's at least part of the reason why Obama's gun safety proposals are polling much higher than his healthcare reform bill did three years ago.
This is also the main explanation for why President Obama's gun plan is doing fairly well among independents and southerners. Obama lost both groups in the 2012 election, yet his post-election bounce has temporarily endeared him to them.
The chances are that he can't maintain this surge in popularity, as most second-term bounces don't last as long as the first-term ones. Obama will likely maintain a positive net approval overall, but not among certain subgroups. If his subgroup approval eventually matches his election margins, then he'll start to show negative numbers among independents and southerners.
The question, then, is whether the high correlation between support for Obama's administration and its gun policy signals that support for gun control is also poised to drop. It makes sense that it would. I'd also anticipate that this drop will be among the same subgroups as for Obama's overall approval. That'll mean that the current support for the gun plan among independents and southerners goes up in smoke.
Many House representatives up for re-election in 2014 are likely aware of the relationship between Obama's gun proposals and his approval. Right now, that's not an issue, but a fall in Obama's approval would make this high correlation a problem. I don't believe that legislators from areas where Obama's approval is negative would want to be associated with a bill whose popularity is tied directly to presidential ratings. I'm talking about senators from red states who are committed to opposition, or waffling, on gun control – like Max Baucus, Mark Begich, Tim Johnson, Mary Landrieu, Mark Pryor, and, to a lesser extent, Kay Hagan.
So, we shouldn't be surprised by a decline in support for Obama's gun control package, nor by more obfuscation from vulnerable Democrats, who want to tread very carefully on guns. This doesn't mean any gun package is over before it's begun. Universal background checks, which are supported by about 90% of the public, seem to be picking up some steam.
But gun control legislation, on the whole, will be difficult to pass – and not just on the face of the proposals, but because red state legislators facing re-election simply won't want to be associated a bill so closely tied to the popularity of President Obama.
