Examining the Support for Same-Sex Marriage

Updated | 11:15 a.m.

Third Way, the centrist Democratic think thank, is about to release a report based on polling from Washington State, which was one of the three states, along with Maine and Maryland, where a majority of voters approved same-sex marriage in Election Day referendums. And while the report and the poll are the work of a partisan as opposed to an independent group, the findings echo other research into support for same-sex marriage and have the ring of truth.

The report gives a strong sense of how support varies according to age group and according to church attendance and according to gender.

But what I found most revealing and instructive was this: among voters who saw the desire by gays and lesbians to be legally wedded as a bid primarily for the rights and protections that heterosexual couples have, same-sex marriage was a loser. Only 26 percent of them voted for its legalization, while 74 percent voted against.

But among voters who believed that gays and lesbians were chiefly interested in being able to pledge the fullest and most public commitment possible to their partners, same-sex marriage was a huge, huge winner. Eighty-five percent of those voters supported it, while only 15 percent opposed it.

That’s a fascinating microcosm of, and window into, broader political dynamics. When an initiative in this country is framed or understood largely as an attempt by a given constituency to get more, the opposition to it is frequently bolstered, the resistance strengthened. Even if the constituency is trying to right a wrong or rectify a disadvantage.

“Give me” can be a risky approach. “Let me” is often a better one, and when voters hear gays and lesbians asking to participate in a hallowed institution for the most personal and heartfelt of reasons, voters may have a more positive reaction. At least that’s the suggestion of the research and the interviews that Third Way has done.

And that understanding informed the way advocates for same-sex marriage appealed to voters in the states with referendums on Nov. 6th. While the success of those referendums most definitely reflects the increased visibility of gays and lesbians—when your good friend, your son or your sister is the one asking for marriage, you may well see the appeal in a different light—it also reflects the ever-savvier work of advocates.

“Folks this year did a really good job of framing marriage in the best way and that’s a big reason why we won,” said Lanae Erickson Hatalsky, director of social policy and politics at Third Way.

“My concern is that we keep framing marriage in the best way and keep focused,” she added, noting that any assumption that society has passed some tipping point and that the battle has been won could be a flawed and dangerous one.

There are many states whose legislatures may take up same-sex marriage soon, and the challenge of rounding up support from lawmakers isn’t so different from that of rounding up support from voters. It may hinge on the nature of the arguments made, the nuances of the language used.

Those states include Delaware, Hawaii, Illinois, New Jersey, Rhode Island, and Minnesota. And while much attention over the last week has focused on what the United States Supreme Court might rule in regard to two cases it recently agreed to take on, it’s still much more likely that same-sex marriage will spread state by state than be instituted nationally by some sweeping judgment from the nation’s highest court. For a breakdown of the permutations and combinations of how the court could rule, and what the effects would be, read this erudite story by my colleague Adam Liptak.

The poll for Third Way was conducted by Grove Insight from November 8th to 12th. It involved 800 voters.

Among those voters, women on the whole were much more likely to support same-sex marriage than men, but the gender gap narrowed as the age of respondents decreased. Among respondents under 50, for example, the difference was slight: 65 percent of men in that age group supported same-sex marriage and 68 percent of women.

The Washington poll, like so many before it, showed that age is a huge determinant of a person’s position on same-sex marriage. Among respondents between 18- and 29-years old, 74 percent said they’d voted to legalize same-sex marriage in Washington. Among voters in their 30s and 40s: 63 percent. But a majority of voters 50 and over voted against the referendum.

I feel the need to digress here and mention, for those of you who didn’t catch wind of it, the way the conservative pundit George Will summarized this particular dynamic in a television appearance last weekend. “Quite literally, the opposition to gay marriage is dying,” Will said bluntly on ABC’s “This Week.” “It’s old people.”

It’s also the most frequent churchgoers. The Third Way report notes that “religiosity correlated to marriage opposition in Washington. While marriage lost among regular churchgoers (those who attend once a week or more), the referendum garnered 53 percent support among those who attend church once or twice a month.”

The full Third Way report is now visible on the organization’s web site. Here’s a link.