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Israeli soldiers near Gazan border
Israeli soldiers handling an ammunition belt near the border with Gaza, as fears grow over a ground offensive. Photograph: Menahem Kahana/AFP/Getty Images
Israeli soldiers handling an ammunition belt near the border with Gaza, as fears grow over a ground offensive. Photograph: Menahem Kahana/AFP/Getty Images

Where is US public opinion on Israel, Palestine and the Gaza conflict?

This article is more than 11 years old
Americans line up solidly behind President Obama in their support for Israel, but a clear majority wants a two-state solution

As the conflict between Hamas and Israel rages, President Obama has stated that Israel has a right to defend itself and that the bond between America and Israel is "unbreakable". Do Americans agree with their president?

A new poll from CNN/ORC demonstrates that the president represents the majority position in the US: 57% of Americans believe that Israel is justified in "taking military action against Hamas and the Palestinians in the area known as Gaza", while only 25% feel it is unjustified.

Americans side evenly more heavily with Israel on the broader issue of the Israeli/Palestinian issue at large: 59% of Americans say their sympathies lie more with Israel, as opposed to just 13% who say their sympathies are more with the Palestinians.

There are some who argue that President Obama and the American government are either too supportive or not supportive enough of Israel, but the polling says Obama is striking the right balance. A Pew Research poll from earlier this year found that 46% of Americans believe US support for Israel is "about right"; 22% say America is too supportive, and a nearly equal percentage, 20%, say America is not supportive enough.

Despite this overarching support for Israel among Americans, however, there remain divisions among the electorate. To start with, there is a relatively wide difference between how Democrats and Republicans view Israel. Per the CNN/ORC poll, which mirrors other recent data, 51% of Democrats sympathize mostly with the Israelis, and 16% with the Palestinians, in the conflict at large. This compares to an 80% v 5% split between Israelis and Palestinians respectively among Republicans.

You might be wondering how there could be a 29-point split between Democrats and Republicans on pro-Israel sympathy, in contrast to only an 11-point difference between Democrats and Republicans on pro-Palestinian sympathy. That is chiefly because Democrats are far more likely to say their sympathies are with both Israelis and Palestinians (6%) or neither (14%). Put another way, Democrats aren't really any more sympathetic to the Palestinians than Republicans are, so much as they sympathize with both sides or don't care much for either.

We can see a similar phenomenon with regard to the current Israeli/Palestinian conflict in the Gaza Strip. Republicans, by a 74% to 12% margin, feel Israel is justified (to unjustified) in its military action, while Democrats are distributed fairly equally, 41% to 36%. Again, though, Democrats are far more likely to offer no opinion, at 23%, than Republicans, at only 13%.

There is also a widespread view that American minorities are more likely to support the Palestinians. It's true that, in the recent CNN/ORC poll, 65% of whites said their sympathies lay with Israel, and that only 47% of non-whites said the same. Likewise, 61% of whites and only 40% of non-whites believed Israel is justified in its military action in Gaza. A closer look at the data suggests, however, that this "ethnic" division is not what it seems.

The ethnic divide on Israel is really a partisan one. As we all know, minorities are far more likely these days to identify with the Democratic than the Republican party. Minorities reflect that party affiliation. Among non-whites, 47% have sympathy with Israel , as against 17% with the Palestinians, with 5% having sympathy with both, and 15% with neither. This is nearly identical to the 51%, to 16%, to 6%, to 14% split among Democrats in the same categories respectively. This is also reflected in attitudes to the current Gaza conflict: the 40% to 35% difference among non-whites on whether Israel is justified/unjustified in their military actions is statistically near-identical to the 41% to 36% among Democrats at large.

What about a religion gap?

The common wisdom that Christian Zionism is a big part of America's support for Israel is borne out in the data. While 22% of Americans think the US has been too supportive of Israel, only 13% of white evangelicals agreed, in that Pew Survey. And 40% of white evangelicals believe America has not been supportive enough – which is double the percentage of Americans overall. White moderate Protestants and Catholics are both close to the American electorate at large.

The largest religious group that is least favorably disposed to Israel is the unaffiliated (that is, agnostics, atheists, and those who identify as nothing in particular). That's not too surprising considering that most unaffiliateds are Democrats and that support for Israel is often, at least in part, a religious experience. So 33% of religiously unaffiliated Americans believe that the US is too supportive of Israel, and only 9% say we haven't been supportive enough. Still, the percentage of unaffiliated Americans who think US support is about right (at 44%), or not supportive enough (that 9%), is a majority, with 53%.

What about the two religious groups at the heart of the Israeli-Palestinian controversy?

American Jews tend to agree with US policy towards Israel. In a September poll of Jewish Americans conducted by GFK for the American Jewish Committee, 61% of respondents approved of President Obama's handling of US-Israeli relations. Of interest, 44% of Americans mostly blame the Palestinians for the lack of progress toward peace, yet 43% blame both the Israelis and Palestinians equally. Combined with those who blame mostly the Israelis, 4%, more American Jews hold both Israelis and Palestinians or solely Israelis responsible than blame Palestinians for the continued hostilities.

There isn't as much public polling available of American Muslims on the Israel-Palestine question. But what we can see is that 62% of American Muslims in a 2011 Pew poll believe there is a way for Israel to exist and Palestinian rights to be "taken care of". That is nearly equal to the 67% of the general population in the US on the same issue. It's also far higher than Muslim populations throughout the world – including only 16% in the Palestinian territories.

We can also say that American Muslims and Jews want a future where Israel and an independent Palestinian state co-exist: 81% of Muslim Americans and 78% of Jewish Americans wanted a two-state solution in a 2011 Gallup survey; 83% of Catholics, 73% of Mormons, 69% of Protestants, and 75% of the unaffiliated agreed.

So, the overall data tell us that while there are differences among Americans, most support the Israelis more than Palestinians. But a very clear majority also looks forward to a two-state solution.

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