Stock brokers work at the stock exchange in Frankfurt/Main, western Germany, on September 6, 2012.... [+]
For years, I've loved reading the Barron's year-end round-table with their esteemed panel that never seems to change. Mario Gabelli, Bill Gross, Abby Joseph Cohen, Felix Zulauf. I also loved the funny questions from the moderator that end up getting transcribed in the notes.
I'll keep reading Barron's, but - given the explosion of Twitter in the last few years and the many talented new financial minds that it's given voice to - I thought it was time for a bit of an alternative approach to the year-ahead prognostications.
Consider this the Barron's Round Table for the rest of us.
Last year, I asked a bunch of my favorite follows on Twitter to give me their top long, top short, and year-end target for 2012. I then published the article here.
It was a great way of getting a variety of ideas from some great market and stock pickers who follow a variety of industries.
I updated their picks a month ago here.
Our consensus estimates (1,307 mean consensus, 1,375 median consensus) tended to be more bearish than how the S&P 500 actually performed for the year - even with the fiscal cliff drama at year end.
So, it's time to ask some old favorites and some new follows their picks for 2013.
Here they are, 48 fearless predictions, arranged from most pessimistic to most optimistic about 2013:
The_Real_Fly, @The_Real_Fly
- Top Long: Honda Motor (HMC)
- Top Short: Japanese Yen (FXY)
- YE S&P Target: 1,100
- Top Long: Comverse Inc. (CNSI)
- Top Short: Microsoft (MSFT)
- YE S&P Target: 1,200
Enis Taner, @EnisTaner
- Top Long: Abbott Labs (ABT)
- Top Short: Whole Foods Market (WFM)
- YE S&P Target: 1,275
Jacob Wolinsky, @JacobWolinsky
- Top Long: Corrections Corp of America (CXW)
- Top Short: Sturm Ruger (RGR)
- YE S&P Target: 1,285
Doug Estadt, @wsmco
- Top Long: Coffee Subindex Total Return ETN (JO)
- YE S&P Target: 1,330
Peter Brandt, @PeterLBrandt
- Top Long: Cosmos (COPN in Switzerland)
- YE S&P Target: 1,405
Derek Hernquist, @derekhernquist
- Top Long: MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (VWO)
- Top Short: Consumer Discretionary ETF (XLY)
- YE S&P Target: 1,410
Volslinger, @VolSlinger
- Top Long:
- Small Cap/Event Driven = Gencorp (GY) ...love the "story" here, it's a top position for me/us, but candidly, this idea originally came from someone else (who may or may not have tweeted it)...anyhow, i think it can easily be a double from here and prob sees low to mid teens by end of q1 2013
- Mid Cap = Cobalt International Energy (CIE) ...I've been bullish for a long time here and i remain bullish, i do NOT believe this company will be independent by the end of 2013
- Large Cap = Microsoft (MSFT) (so boring, i know, but its time for the big dog to cut some old ties and unleash the beast)
- Gold = McEwen Mining (MUX), favorite large cap is Silver Wheaton (SLW)
- Top Short:
- Small/Mid Cap = Francesca's Holdings (FRAN)
- Large Cap = salesforce.com (CRM)
- Macro Commodity Call: SLV top performing commodity (looking for gold/silver ratio to drop back below 40), Nat Gas weakest performing commodity
- YE S&P Target: 1,430, but a range between 1,200 and 1,575
First Adopter, @firstadopter
- Top Long: Zillow (Z)
- Top Short: Amazon (AMZN)
- YE S&P Target: 1,484
Daniel Milller, @wallstreetbean
- Top Long: Qualcomm (QCOM)
- Top Short: Gold Miners ETF (GDX)
- YE S&P Target: 1,506
Lawrence McDonald, @convertbond
- Top Long: Power Shares WilderHill Clean Energy ETF (PBW)
- Top Short: Market Vectors Steel ETF (SLX)
- YE S&P Target: 1,510
(Alpha)lpha, @Alphal_pha
- Top Long: Xerox, (XRX)
- Top Short: Staples, (SPLS)
- YE S&P Target: 1,515
David Schawel, @davidschawel
- Top Long: Russia ETF (RSX)
- Top Short: iShares Inv Grade Corp Bond Fund (LQD)
- YE S&P Target: 1,525
MicroFundy, @MicroFundy
- Top Long: Zynga (ZNGA)
- Top Short: Groupon (GRPN)
- YE S&P Target: 1,540
Barry Graubart, @graubart
- Top Long: Cree (CREE), JC Penney (JCP)
- Top Short: Lululemon Athletica (LULU), Bed Bath and Beyond (BBBY)
- YE S&P Target: 1,540
David, @dschorrnyc
- Top Long: Sears Holdings (SHLD)
- Top Short: salesforce.com (CRM)
- YE S&P Target: 1,540
Dan Nathan, @RiskReversal
- Top Long: Renren (RENN)
- Top Short: Lululemon Athletica (LULU)
- YE S&P Target: 1,550
Joshua Brown, @ReformedBroker
- Top Long: 3D Systems (DDD)
- Top Short: Herbalife (HLF) - so original, I know
- YE S&P Target: 1,550
George Acs, @TheACSMan
- Top Long: Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold (FCX)
- Top Short: Apple (AAPL)
- YE S&P Target: 1,550
Phil Pearlman, @ppearlman
- Top Long: Russell 2000 ETF (IWM)
- Top Short: Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT)
- YE S&P Target: 1,550
Brian Sozzi, @BrianSozzi
- Top Long: Take-Two Interactive (TTWO)
- Top Short: Boston Beer (SAM)
- YE S&P Target: 1,560
Joe Kunkle, @optionshawk
- Top Long: Tractor Supply Co. (TSCO)
- Top Short: Staples (SPLS)
- YE S&P Target: 1,565
Philip Etienne, @PhilipEtienne
- Top Long: WNC SIMG OVTI GSIT SPRT OCZ DXLG NCT DDD EGOV INXN BWS
- Top Short: TDC EDU KSS ZLTQ WSH FXY DWA ENR NXPI NLSN FL
- YE S&P Target: 1,565
Nick Waddell, @CantechLetter
- Top Long: Counterpath (CPAH)
- Top Short: Salesforce (CRM)
- YE S&P Target: 1,584
Joe Donahue, @upsidetrader
- Top Long: Sarepta Therapeutics (SRPT), Target $70
- Top Short: 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT), Target $70
- YE S&P Target: 1,590
Michael Bigger, @biggercapital
- Top Long: American Apparel (APP)
- YE S&P Target: 1,600
Hedgehog Trader, @hedgehogtrader
- Top Long: NVDA, TSLA, AAPL miners: VGZ, ASM, SVLC, AXU
- Top Short: US Dollar
- YE S&P Target: 1,600
Rocco Pendola, @rocco_thestreet
- Top Long: NewsCorp (NWSA) -Love him or dislike him, Rupert Murdoch is brilliant and he's building a news, sports, entertainment empire. Spin off will be huge
- Top Short: Hewlett Packard (HPQ) - Below $10 before summer. Too tied to consumer demand for PC products. People are not lining up to buy PCs and they're certainly not lining up to buy HP products.
- YE S&P Target: 1,601
Timothy Collins, @Tangletrade
- Top Long: Bank of Ireland (IRE)
- Top Short: CONN's Inc (CONN); The Ultimate Software Group (ULTI)
- YE S&P Target: 1,610
Timothy Connolly, @SconsetCapital
- Top Long: Apple (AAPL)
- Top Short: Facebook (FB)
- YE S&P Target: 1,625
Michael K. Dawson, @TrendRida
- Top Long: ARM Holdings (ARMH)
- Top Short: Facebook (FB)
- YE S&P Target: 1,625
Eddy Elfenbein, @EddyElfenbein
- Top Long: Moog Inc. (MOG)
- Top Short: salesforce.com (CRM)
- YE S&P Target: 1,625
Ken Shreve, @KenShreve
- Top Long: Michael Kors (KORS) - That’s right; a stock recently selling at 40 times trailing earnings and 34 times forward earnings will see more multiple expansion in 2013. And why not? In the past two quarters, same-store sales growth has accelerated from 36% to 45.2%. After its IPO in December 2011 at $20, KORS continues to show relative price strength as growth fund managers embrace its growth story. I’m expecting more funds to come on board in 2013 as strong growth continues.
- Top Short: Coinstar (CSTR) - It’s been a favorite of short sellers for a while now -- not surprising as Wall Street questions growth prospects ahead. The company generates a lot of cash but sales growth has been decelerating in recent quarters and it carries a lot of debt. The company was first known for its high-margin, coin-counting machines. The next growth driver was its Redbox DVD rental kiosks. A recent joint venture with Verizon to stream movies is interesting but it’s not likely to affect the bottom line and top line anytime soon.
- YE S&P Target: 1,625 - Major averages continue to set up for a re-test of their September highs. Low inflation and better-than-expected economic growth in 2013 will fuel more gains for the major averages.
Bob Lang, @aztecs99
- Top Long: First Solar (FLSR)
- YE S&P Target: 1,633
Francine McKenna, @retheauditors
- Top Long: Treehouse Foods (THS) - This Chicago-area private label food manufacture has everything - from soup to salsa and is supposedly the biggest private label pickle packer!
- Top Short: SAP (SAP) - This software and consulting services company will suffer the same fate as HP - dragged down by goodwill and intangible write-offs of the silly premiums paid for acquisitions like SuccessFactors
- YE S&P Target: 1,635
Scott Nations, @ScottNations
- Top Long: Caterpillar (CAT)
- Top Short: Amazon.com (AMZN)
- YE S&P Target: 1,650
Todd Sullivan, @ToddSullivan
- Top Long: Bank of America (BAC --> WS.A 2019 $13 warrants)
- Top Short: salesforce.com (CRM)
- YE S&P Target: 1,660
Adam Warner, @agwarner
- Top Long: Velocity Shares Daily Inverse VIX Short Term ETN (XIV)
- Top Short: Research In Motion (RIMM)
- YE S&P Target: 1,666
- Top Long: Financial Select ETF (XLF)
- Top Short: Utilities ETF (XLU)
- YE S&P Target: 1,675
- Top Long: Masco (MAS)
- Top Short: Gold (GLD)
- YE S&P Target: 1,677
Eric Jackson, @ericjackson
- Top Long: Yahoo! (YHOO)
- Top Short: Baidu (BIDU)
- YE S&P Target: 1,700
Dasan, @Dasan
- Top Long: ARM Holdings (ARMH),CommVault (CVLT), Research In Motion (RIMM)
- Top Short: GameStop (GME), Broadcom (BRCM)
- YE S&P Target: 1,800
Adam Feuerstein, @adamfeuerstein
- Top Long: Sarepta Therapeutics (SRPT)
- Top Short: Arena Pharmaceuticals (ARNA)
- Top Long: TiVo (TIVO)
- Top Short: Activision (ATVI)
Jim Gobetz, @aiki14
- Top Long: Much more bullish on 2013 than 2012. Long Oil both WTI and Brent equally. Long the S&P after this fiscal cliff nonsense ends. More Neutral Gold (not selling nor adding) vs Long Silver & Industrial metals. No interest in Gov't debt here, strategic picks in corp debt. Overweight US equities vs EM equities. Thinking it's time to look at real estate again, buying here (Cayman) looking at select US.
Matt Davio, @misstrade
- Top Long: Coffee Futures ($147 down to $130, currently $147)
- Top Short: Starbucks (SBUX) - ($54 - 62, currently $54.7)
- Top Long: Vivus (VVUS)
Leigh Drogen, @LDrogen
- Top Long: LinkedIn (LNKD) - After spending a few years building a huge moat around their extremely important professional identity user graph, LinkedIn is now focusing on generating revenue from it and wow is that graph powerful. As the labor market improves, especially for white collar workers, LinkedIn has captured an enormous share of the recruiting market. Their endorsements graph may be even more powerful soon and holds a ton of monetization potential. The chart is also basing beautifully going into the new year.
- Top Short: Dell (DELL) - Double digit negative year over year EPS and Revenue numbers, a lack of high margin products in the pipeline, a second to everyone services business, no management team to speak of, and a chart that looks headed to Davy Jones' locker. Sometimes the obvious ones really are the easy ones.
Some summary data on these picks:
- Top Longs: There was very little consensus among this year's picks. Only ARMH, DDD and SRPT were named twice. All other longs were only mentioned once.
- Top Shorts: CRM was mentioned 5x - it was also a top short pick last year but was up 67% YTD through Christmas; AMZN, SPLS, LULU, TLT, and FB were named twice.
- Year-End S&P Target: Average was 1,540 for a gain of +9.4% next year (as of 12/28) - Median was 1,563 for a gain of +10.9% (as of 12/28)
[Author long YHOO at time of writing]
