Failing to deliver

IN THE Scottish golfing hotel at Gleneagles in 2005, the governments of the G7 club of rich countries promised with much fanfare to raise their combined aid to sub-Saharan Africa. But they are dismally failing to do so. According to ONE, a London-based lobby, aid would have to rise from its 2004 level of $18 billion to $40 billion by the end of this year for those promises to be kept. But they look set to miss that goal by a mile (see chart). At the end of last year they were collectively only 44% of the way towards hitting the 2010 target. Even if the rich countries fulfil this year's plans, they will have provided only 61% of the increase promised in 2005.

As the chart shows, some countries—Britain, Canada, Japan and the United States—have met or exceeded their goals. (It helped that the Canadians and Americans had set themselves quite low targets.) Others, such as France and Germany, said they would do a lot but have spent about a quarter of what they promised. Italy was easily the worst of the pack. Its aid to Africa was 6% less last year than in 2004.

In any event, ensuring that governments stick to their promises in terms of the amount of aid dished out may often miss the point and make it easier to avoid examining whether the aid, in cash or projects, has actually helped development or economic growth. David Roodman of the Centre for Global Development in Washington says that focusing on rich countries' promises can deflect attention from big issues such as trade or migration. The United States, the European Union and Japan boosted their own farmers' incomes in total by $219 billion through subsidies and tariffs in 2008, eight times as much as they spent on aid to Africa that year. It is far easier to promise a bit more aid than to dismantle food subsidies that favour Western farmers but can devastate African ones.

The importance of foreign aid from the West may be exaggerated. China and other big emerging economies are pumping in aid, though it is hard to measure the actual amounts because they tend not to be documented in detail. The terms on which African countries let China and other newcomers tap their mineral riches, as they have begun to do, and how they use their share of the proceeds, will become increasingly important.

Oxford University's Paul Collier reckons this will affect the continent's economic prospects a lot more than Western aid. Western countries could, he says, help African governments make the most of the emerging world's hunger for natural resources. But rich-country governments need to regain their flagging moral authority. “It is difficult for Western countries to have any credibility with African governments,” argues Mr Collier, “if they promise one thing and do another.”