A few years ago, two university researchers studied how we process facts that run against our closely held opinions. Will people who have false or unsubstantiated political beliefs, they wondered, change their minds when presented with facts that prove otherwise?
Their answer: No, a lot of them won't.
Brendan Nyhan of the University of Michigan and Jason Reifler of Georgia State University found what they call "the backfire effect": Some people, given facts that contradict what they thought they knew, cling even more tightly to their faulty beliefs.
I won't try to get into the methodology of the study here, but I can vouch for the conclusions. In five years of writing this column, I've talked with lots of people whose beliefs and suspicions have been unswayed by the opposing facts that they find in these pages.
Nyhan told an interviewer recently that, in the wake of his research, "It's hard to be optimistic about the effectiveness of fact-checking." The key issue with a lot of people, he said, seems to be that "it's absolutely threatening to admit you're wrong."
That brings us to The Plain Dealer's latest foray into political fact-checking, PolitiFact Ohio.
Two weeks ago, the paper debuted as the Ohio arm of PolitiFact, a Pulitzer Prize-winning political truth-squad effort hatched three years ago at the St. Petersburg Times. The idea is to identify statements made by politicians or political entities, run them through a rigorous reporting process, and let readers know what we found.
We've gotten plenty of good reaction from readers for this effort, and deservedly so, as I wrote last Sunday.
But I've also heard from the usual skeptics who asked, essentially, "Why should we believe you?"
Well, here's why:
•Transparency. Readers are let in on the reporting process from start to finish. Every PolitiFact Ohio story is accompanied by a list of the sources used in the fact-checking and, when possible, a link to where the original source material can be found on the Internet. Reporters don't just pick up information from Wikipedia. They do their own research. Other reporters or news researchers who contribute are noted, and the name of the person who edits the story is included on PolitiFact.com.
•Clear sourcing. PolitiFact stories require multiple sources, beginning with the originator of the "fact" the reporters start out to check. And, every source is "on the record." Plain Dealer reporters only occasionally resort to unnamed sources, but you won't find any in a PolitiFact story. Reporters are permitted to use off-the-record guidance on occasion -- which will be noted in the story -- but the supporting facts and research will always have a name or source attached.
And reporters don't just take people's word for it. All information is double-checked and verified before it gets into a PolitiFact story.
• Nonpartisanship. PolitiFact Ohio Editor Robert Higgs says that, as the series evolves, he expects a relatively even breakdown of results that favor each party. But that's not his primary goal. He and the reporters select topics they think are interesting or that bear investigation, without regard to whose ox might wind up being gored.
When reporters begin researching a particular statement, they don't know what the result will be, and the story they write will reflect the truth they discover, no matter which side of the aisle winds up looking bad. Already we have had stories that Higgs thought would go one way when the reporting began, only to prove something different by the time it was finished.
•Checks and balances. When a reporter is finished researching and writing a PolitiFact story, he or she assigns a Truth-O-Meter value to it, which can be one of six judgments from "True" (something that checked out in every detail) to "Pants on Fire" (a statement found to be simply ridiculous).
But that's not where it ends. A panel of three veteran editors fact-checks the fact-checker, reviewing the story and the Truth-O-Meter assessment. They make the final call, overruling the reporter if they see fit. They are Metro Editor Chris Quinn, who oversees the Metro operation; Mark Vosburgh, who is in charge of the politics reporters; and Jane Kahoun, the editor for the Columbus and Washington, D.C., bureau reporters.
Despite all of that, the PolitiFact team might have a hard time reaching those entrenched folks that Nyhan and Reifler encountered in their study.
But for the rest of us, the information in these stories will be invaluable.