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    Stanford University women's basketball head coach Tara VanDerveer addresses to fans during an NCAA college basketball pep rally in Stanford, Calif., Thursday, April 1, 2010, before leaving for San Antonio for the Final Four. (Dai Sugano/Mercury News)

  • Stanford University women's basketball head coach Tara VanDerveer says goodbye...

    Stanford University women's basketball head coach Tara VanDerveer says goodbye to her dogs, Buddy (L) and Scout (R) as she participates in an NCAA college basketball pep rally in Stanford, Calif., Thursday, April 1, 2010, before leaving for San Antonio for the Final Four. (Dai Sugano/Mercury News)

  • Stanford University women's basketball head coach Tara VanDerveer participates in...

    Stanford University women's basketball head coach Tara VanDerveer participates in an NCAA college basketball pep rally in Stanford, Calif., Thursday, April 1, 2010, before leaving for San Antonio for the Final Four. (Dai Sugano/Mercury News)

  • Stanford University women's basketball head coach Tara VanDerveer participates in...

    Stanford University women's basketball head coach Tara VanDerveer participates in an NCAA college basketball pep rally in Stanford, Calif., Thursday, April 1, 2010, before leaving for San Antonio for the Final Four. (Dai Sugano/Mercury News)

  • Stanford University women's basketball head coach Tara VanDerveer participates in...

    Stanford University women's basketball head coach Tara VanDerveer participates in an NCAA college basketball pep rally in Stanford, Calif., Thursday, April 1, 2010, before leaving for San Antonio for the Final Four. (Dai Sugano/Mercury News)

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Pictured is Mercury News sports columnist Mark Purdy. Photo for column sig or social media usage. (Michael Malone/staff)
PUBLISHED: | UPDATED:

The If List “…

If you think Connecticut is an absolute lock to win the NCAA women’s Final Four, stop thinking that way.

If Stanford gets by Oklahoma, I truly believe the Cardinal could beat the UConn women in Tuesday’s championship game.

If you wonder why, please check the halftime score from December when the teams played each other: Stanford 40, Connecticut 38.

If a team can outscore UConn in the first half, it can outscore UConn in the second half. Stanford could. Connecticut is awesome but not unbeatable.

If I had not covered the 1985 men’s Final Four, I might think otherwise. That year, I was completely convinced that defending champ Georgetown, with Patrick Ewing, was unbeatable. And then Villanova played a perfect game for the upset. After that, I promised never to call a team “unbeatable” again.

If the men’s Final Four were a movie, Butler would win. But it’s not. Go with Duke. Unfortunately.

If the NCAA is stupid enough to expand the men’s hoops tournament to 96 teams, those early-round games will be a landscape of empty seats. Last month at HP Pavilion, there were thousands of vacant chairs for first- and second-round games — and San Jose still had the third-best attendance of the eight sites that weekend. Maybe the neutral-site plan for the 96-team bracket is to play at small high school gyms.

If the Giants and A’s wanted to try something really cool for this weekend’s exhibition games, they would stage at least one “Sandlot Throwback” contest. A captain on each team could choose up sides, being forced to select players from the other team’s roster with alternate picks. Then the two “pickup teams” would play each other. Yes, I’m serious. Ever since 1997 when regular-season interleague play began, the preseason “Bay Bridge Series” has lacked any buzz. But I’d watch a game like that.

If Buster Posey proved during spring training that he was one of the Giants’ eight best hitters — and I think he did — then Posey needs to be on the opening day roster, playing somewhere. Doesn’t he?

If the Giants instead order Posey to begin the season at Triple-A Fresno, the “baseball thinking” might be sound. But if Posey is called up in June and goes crazy at the plate — and the Giants then miss the playoffs by just one or two games — the second-guessing will be enormous.

If I am Sharks coach Todd McLellan, my mission would be to field the healthiest team possible for the opening playoff faceoff in 12 or 13 days.

If that causes Joe Thornton to miss the rest of the regular season, so be it. Last year, the team rushed back some injured players to “shake off rust” in the final regular-season games, and it didn’t help. As you will recall.

If the Sharks win just two of their remaining five games, they should clinch the Pacific Division title and no worse than the No. 2 seed in the Western Conference. Another reason not to rush back Thornton.

If you check the standings, you’ll see my logic. The Phoenix Coyotes are the only Pacific Division team able to catch the Sharks. But the Coyotes, with 100 points, have just four games left. At two points per victory, they can reach a maximum 108 points — but will probably finish with 105 or 106. The Sharks already own 104 points. Two more victories ought to clinch the division. Three more should clinch the No. 1 seed in the conference, ahead of slumping Chicago.

If I am making an educated guess, therefore, the Sharks’ first-round playoff opponent will be the winner of tonight’s game between Colorado and Calgary. They’re battling for the No. 8 seed. Still, neither would be a pushover for the Sharks. But who would, really?

If I owned the Warriors, Don Nelson would already be the team’s former coach. Did you see The Beach Boys perform on “Dancing With The Stars” earlier this week? It was painful to watch 69-year-old singer Mike Love try to croak out the melody to “Kokomo.” These days, I get the same sad feeling watching the 69-year-old Nelson. I don’t want to see it any more.

If Nelson is again snubbed by the basketball Hall of Fame, however, that will be a crime. For his entire body of NBA work, he belongs. It’s simply corrupt and wrong that the Hoops Hall still has a secret panel of selectors. Why are they so afraid to be identified? The suspicion is that Nelson has ticked off some of the selectors over the years, and they’ve formed some sort of He-Man Nelly-Haters Club. Who are these guys?

If the Warriors’ new owner is Larry Ellison, maybe he can hack into the Hall’s computers and find out.

If not? As long as Nelson spends next season home in Maui rather than at home games in Oakland, who cares?

Contact Mark Purdy at mpurdy@mercurynews.com or 408-920-5092.