The good news as we amateur bracketologists try to predict whether this slumping Rutgers women’s basketball team will reach the NCAA Tournament in March despite a three-game losing streak:
All is not lost.
The bad news:
It won’t be easy.
On Monday morning, ESPN's Charlie Crème projected the Scarlet Knights (12-10, 4-4 Big East) to earn a 12-seed and a matchup against Kentucky in the Western regional. That, of course, was before Rutgers fell to No. 3 Notre Dame at The RAC later that night.
In simple terms, look at it this way: The Scarlet Knights made the tournament with 19 wins last year and a second-round exit in the Big East Tournament. They won a pair of tournament games before falling to Purdue in the Sweet 16.
With eight games left, they’d need seven more wins to match last year’s result.
Can they do it?
Here’s the schedule:
2/6: at South Florida (13-8, 4-4)
2/10: Seton Hall (9-13, 1-8)
2/13: at Villanova (11-10, 0-8)
2/16: at West Virginia (20-3, 7-2)
2/21: Syracuse (17-5, 4-5)
2/24: St. John's (18-4, 6-3)
2/27: at Providence (13-9, 4-5)
3/1: Louisville (11-11, 3-6)
Figure -- fingers crossed for Rutgers fans, considering that pre-conference loss to George Washington -- that the Scarlet Knights breeze past Seton Hall and 'Nova. Considering victories against similar middling opponents like Marquette and DePaul, they should (should) also be able to beat USF on Saturday, then down Providence and Louisville to finish the season.
So, in theory, there’s five wins.
That means, barring a major run in the conference tournament, Feb. 16 to Feb. 24 could serve as the crux of the season.
*Syracuse: The Scarlet Knights already faced the Orange once this year, hanging tough in the Carrier Dome before falling, 79-66. Syracuse had faded a bit since then, and it'll be interesting to see how they fair a) on the road and b) without a 41-to-14 foul-shot disparity.
*West Virginia: The Mountaineers have two conference losses: Notre Dame and Connecticut. And they gave the Huskies trouble in the first half, which, considering that intergalactic squad, is an accomplishment. Four WVU players average double-digits per game, led by junior guard Liz Repella (14.3 a night). If things turn run-and-gun, well, that would be trouble for the Scarlet Knights, who are still searching for offensive direction.
*St. John's: One of the conference's surprise teams this year. Their one major blemish is a loss to Cincinnati, who Rutgers slugged past earlier this season. The Johnnies will be coming off games against UConn and Notre Dame when they travel to The RAC.
So, in theory, Rutgers should be able to win one of those games.
That makes 18 wins, the same number they had heading into the Big East tourney last year. If they get one more, they should be in.
In theory.