Experts: 3rd NK nuke test possible if dialogue fails

North Korea could resort to conducting its third nuclear test if inter-Korean dialogue fails, experts say.

Under strict international sanctions since sinking the South Korean warship Cheonan and shelling Yeonpyeong Island last year, Pyongyang is apparently using the tactic of using a dialogue offensive while threatening provocations.

Experts say the dialogue offensive could continue for the time being, warning that another provocation could come in the event of no response or the need for internal unity for the North’s hereditary succession plan.

“North Korea will start a dialogue offensive for a while,” Yang Moo-jin, a professor at the University of North Korean Studies in Seoul, said Tuesday. “Unless inter-Korean relations make significant progress and the U.S. provides food aid, the North will adopt brinkmanship tactics.”

“North Korea is likely to attempt aggressive provocations such as long-range missile launches or a third nuclear test, not to mention a provocation in the Yellow Sea.”

Pyongyang has suggested talks on starting additional inter-Korean negotiations by proposing consultations for a joint study on Mount Baekdu’s volcanic activity despite a failed military working-level meeting early last month. Seoul has insisted that bilateral talks are meaningless unless Pyongyang assumes responsibility for the Cheonan and Yeonpyeong attacks.

Experts warn that if the two Koreas waste time on confrontation, the North could resort to provocations.

“North Korea seems to have decided to refrain from provocations for the time being for its ‘party’ next year, when it seeks to become a strong and prosperous country,” said Park Hyeong-jung, senior researcher at Korea Institute for National Unification. “But it could change its position toward provocations if things don’t work out the way it intends to after testing the South through various contacts following the failed working-level military meeting.”

Certain experts say Seoul should be prepared for provocations because Pyongyang could attempt a provocation during its dialogue offensive.

“The six-party talks were about to be resumed right before the Cheonan sinking, and the North also stressed the need for inter-Korean talks before the Yeonpyeong attack,” said Yoon Deok-min, a professor at the Institute of Foreign Affairs and National Security under the South Korean Foreign Ministry. “Since North Korea could attempt a provocation at any time depending on its internal needs, we cannot be complacent.”