Six-foot-four sophomore center Kayla Alexander has led the Syracuse University women's basketball team in scoring this year -- and to the cusp of an NCAA Tournament berth. For the second straight year, the Syracuse women’s basketball team is balancing on the bubble of an NCAA Tournament bid, but this year’s Orange just might roll in the right direction.
SU will find out its fate today when the 64-team field is announced at 7 p.m. on ESPN’s Selection Monday show.
In its favor, the Orange has a 22-9 record, a win over one top-10 team (Big 10 tourney champ Ohio State, then No. 6; now No. 18) and victories over three probable tourney-bound teams from the Big East (Marquette, St. John’s and Louisville). Syracuse also had no bad losses and sports an RPI rating of between 63 in RealTimeRPI.com and 54 in Collegiate Basketball News, a service that duplicates the NCAA’s rating system.
On the downside, SU’s non-conference schedule — despite a win over the Buckeyes and a 77-43 loss to then No. 2 Baylor — was weak, reflected by a strength of schedule ranking of between 84 and 105. Those rankings are by far the lowest of any team in the Big East (Providence is next lowest at 61/70).
Syracuse also narrowly lost what, in retrospect, might come to be viewed as a play-in game, when the Orange fell to No. 23 Georgetown 61-60 in the second round of the Big East Tournament last week.
If SU is left out of the field, that one-point loss and its strength of schedule will be the reasons.
So, what do the experts think will happen?
“I think Syracuse will make it,” said ESPN bracketologist Charlie Creme, who tabs the Orange as one of a record 10 Big East teams in the tournament field. “They’ve got that win over Ohio State and were extremely competitive in a very competitive league.”
Creme, however, added a caveat.
“They’re not absolute because there probably are some people on the (NCAA) committee that aren’t going to like all of their credentials,” he said. “The biggest knock this year — and it has been the last few years — is that they just don’t schedule very well in non-conference. Now, it’s getting better. Getting Ohio State to come to their place was nice and how they played in that game was impressive. So I think they have done enough to be in.”
He has penned the ’Cuse in as a No. 9 seed in the Spokane Regional, meeting up with No. 8 seed Iowa State (22-10, 9-7 Big 12) in the first round in Stanford, Calif.
ESPN analyst Carolyn Peck also voiced support for the Orange’s resume, noting that the team finished strong down the stretch, winning five of its last six Big East games in the regular season. She also credited SU with road wins over St. John’s and Marquette, but then added her own asterisk.
“I think one thing that might hurt them is if the committee looks at the Big East and says, ‘Wow, 10 teams out of one conference,’” she said. “I think it’s a credit to how competitive the Big East is and I don’t see any reason why there shouldn’t be 10 teams in.”
As for SU coach Quentin Hillsman, he believes his team has passed the litmus test this year, after falling just short last year with a 20-9 regular season mark that was bolstered by two more wins in the conference tournament and three more in the WNIT.
“I always say 10 total wins (in the Big East) will do it,” Hillsman said of his team’s 9-7 regular-season conference slate plus a victory over Seton Hall in the first round of the league tournament. “I believe that we have some quality wins and no bad losses. And I actually feel that we have a better resume this year than the year when we got in before, in 2008.”
And what would put Syracuse on the wrong side of the bubble?
“I have no clue,” said Hillsman, now in his fifth year at the helm. “When you talk about playing Baylor — No. 2 in the country at that point — playing UConn — No. 1 in the country — and beating No. 6 Ohio State, we played three top-6 teams and our conference is the toughest one in the country. We finished tied for seventh and got 10 wins. That sounds like enough to me.”
Chris Wagner
cwagner@syracuse.com
2011 Syracuse University women's basketball schedule
November
12 — SU 72, Northeastern 69
15 — SU 86, Cornell 45
22 — SU 90, Long Island 36
29 — SU 87, New Hampshire 46
December
1 — SU 73, Maryland Eastern Shore 50
4 — SU 87, Delaware State 17
6 — SU 69, Albany 38
11 — SU 75, Ohio State 66
21 — Baylor 77, SU 43
22 — SU 77, Clemson 58
28 — SU 94, Saint Francis (Pa.) 60
30 — SU 90, Bryant 31
January
1 — SU 91, Arkansas-Pine Bluff 56
4 — Georgetown 80, SU 62
8 — SU 75, Seton Hall 50
11 — Rutgers 78, SU 67
15 — West Virginia 70, SU 61
22 — SU 69, Marquette 63
26 — SU 69, Pittsburgh 60
29 — SU 78, South Florida 57
February
1 — Notre Dame 71, SU 48
6 — Rutgers 54, SU 47
8 — DePaul 77, SU 61
12 — SU 70, Villanova 49
16 — SU 53, Louisville 45
19 — SU 78, St. John's 67
22 — SU 55, Cincinnati 53
26 — SU 63, Providence 47
28 — Connecticut 82, SU 47
March
4 — SU 74, Seton Hall 44
5 — Georgetown 61, SU 60