Wining in its leafy suburbs summed up New Labour’s 1997 triumph and will again be key in May’s Assembly elections. Political Editor David Williamson looks at the bellwether seat of Cardiff North

CONSERVATIVES are battling to stop the seat that summed up the triumph of New Labour in Wales in 1997 falling into the hands of their old foes this May.

This leafy and affluent constituency was a Tory heartland seat until Julie Morgan snatched it for Labour in the first Blair landslide.

Julie Morgan beat off Conservative AM Jonathan Morgan’s attempt to win it back for his party in 2005 and now these former rivals are locked in a new contest for the Assembly seat.

Jonathan Morgan no longer holds ambitions to go to Westminster and won Cardiff North in the 2007 Assembly elections by a thumping 4,844 votes.

Julie Morgan, whose career as an MP ended when Tory Jonathan Evans won the constituency at the last general election with a majority of 194, wants to enter the Assembly.

Pundits will study the seat for signs of how Wales’ middle-classes are reacting to a Conservative-Liberal Democrat Government in Westminster and a Labour-Plaid Cymru administration in Cardiff Bay.

Will voters who previously sent Labour’s Julie Morgan to Westminster and Sue Essex to the Assembly decide they want the party to represent them once again? Or will Jonathan Morgan succeed in pinning the blame for the crisis which spawned the cuts on Labour and keep the seat blue?

Jonathan Morgan is bullish about his party’s chances and is convinced the electorate know whom to blame for economic woes.

He said: “I think people will understand the UK has been left with the worst deficit of any of the G20 countries and they now feel, ‘Well, it was the Labour Government that created the mess and as usual it’s the Conservative Party that has to take the UK out of it’.

“Everybody who runs a business locally, or who runs their household budget, knows full well we can’t go on in the way we were.”

Despite the constituency’s white-collar ambience, much of the prosperity comes from jobs in the public sector. The University Hospital of Wales and Cardiff University are major employers.

But Julie Morgan said the actions of the UK Government were being watched with “dismay and uncertainty” by her former constituents.

She said: “There is a great deal of concern and anger about the proposals in England but a great deal of pleasure about what the Assembly has said it will do in Wales.

“When you look at all the indices, it’s a middle-class, home-owning area.

“It has in the past not been traditional Labour territory, but there are a huge number of public sector workers here.

Their jobs are very uncertain and they are obviously people who are not hugely wealthy [and] are affected by things like the child benefit cut.

“I think there is quite a lot of concern about that.”

Jonathan Morgan believes it is “vital we see a private sector that’s growing that can take up the slack” and insists he has a personal investment in Cardiff North. “When you live in a constituency you represent you become more passionate about it,” he said.

His challenger, who is married to Cardiff West AM and former Labour First Minister Rhodri Morgan, still enjoys a strong profile from her years as an MP.

She said: “When I arrived at the office there were two people waiting outside with problems. I get people approaching me all the time for help.”

Jonathan Morgan said he was surprised she had chosen to contest the seat, saying: “I didn’t realise she had a burning desire to be an AM.”

But Julie Morgan is keen to get back into the heart of local politics.

She said: “It’s a job I love. I love representing people.”

The Liberal Democrats will also hope to drive up their share of the vote. Candidate Matt Smith proved his tenacity when in the recent Westminster election he stood for the Blaenau Gwent seat at the age of just 22.

Pastor Dave Llewellyn of Lisvane Baptist Church admitted the area had some very committed Conservatives but added support was by no means universal.

“You’ve got some that are very excited the Conservatives are representing us and others that are not,” he said.

But he agreed anxiety about the economy had crept across the constituency.

He said: “We’re living in a very nice part of town but still there are very real concerns about jobs and the economy. Whether or not you’re in the 40% tax bracket, it’s affecting everyone.

“We’ve got a considerable amount of people in this area working in the health service. All of them are concerned about the cutbacks and the impact that will have on medical care.”

But politics was not on the menu at the Deri Inn in Rhiw- bina. Assistant manager Daniel Fletcher said talk of whether Labour or the Conservatives would win Cardiff North had yet to become a source of intense debate among the clientele. Of much greater interest, he said, were the fortunes of Cardiff City.