Japan’s Naoto Kan is still here – but on borrowed time

Almost a year ago to the day, Naoto Kan was standing before the nation pledging to create a more “vigorous” Japan as he was sworn in as prime minister.

Fastforward 12 months and an altogether different scenario is unfolding – Mr Kan fighting for his political life as he narrowly avoids being unceremoniously shoved off the nation’s merry-go-round of leaders.

The eleventh hour survival of Mr Kan is unlikely to prompt national celebrations. Instead his precarious political position can perhaps be best summed up by two words: borrowed time.

This was clear even before the March 11 earthquake, tsunami and nuclear crisis shook the foundations of the country, when Mr Kan’s future as PM was already in question.

A tricky mix of unpopular tax reforms, parliamentary deadlock, financial scandals and high-level resignations had already knocked his popularity rating to a dismal level of less than 20 per cent.

The growing chorus of calls for his resignation briefly subsided in the immediate aftermath of the March 11 disaster, as a political amnesty emerged between the ruling Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) and the opposition Liberal Democratic Party (LDP).

Such a truce, however, proved to be as fragile as it was short lived: only weeks after March 11, the political sniping and inter-party bickering had resumed.

For the nation, such political instability could not come at a worse time and has only added to their growing list of woes, as they embark on a crucial effort to clean up and rebuild Japan post March 11.

Testimony to this are the polls: although Mr Kan’s popularity continues to hover under the 30 per cent mark, the vast majority of Japanese do not support a change of leadership in the current situation.

The economy is also invariably suffering from such political instability, with strong leadership and a clear fiscal policy regarded as essential as the nation slips back into recession and unemployment levels rise.

Yunosuke Ikeda, a strategist at Nomura Securities, said: “Now that PM Kan has survived, albeit temporarily, the market should, in our view, begin to focus on how Japanese Government Bond issuance bills will be passed through parliament and finding a successor to Mr Kan. On both issues, we see no clear scenarios at all.”

However, Mr Kan’s move today has confirmed one certainty amid the chaos which has perhaps long been suspected: his departure as Japan’s prime minister is not a question of “if” but simply “when”.