AV referendum: What if a general election were held today under AV?

A Telegraph analysis of the alternative vote system shows the Liberal Democrats would be the main beneficiaries of an AV electoral system.

Under all predicted election scenarios under AV, the biggest change would be more seats for the Liberal Democrats.

If the 2010 general election had been held under AV, Labour could potentially have won more seats than the Conservatives.

In this hypothetical election scenario, the Liberal Democrats would have won 60 per cent more seats than they currently hold.

The Conservative Party would have lost nearly 20 per cent of their seats, with Labour gaining 9 per cent, putting them above the Conservatives, but still short of an overall majority.

The increase in Labour and Liberal Democrat seats would have made a Lab-Lib coalition in 2010 much more likely.

Despite winning more seats, Labour would have lost some key figures under AV.

Ardent supporters of the alternative vote, Tessa Jowell MP (Dulwich and W Norwood), Shadow Minister for the Olympics and Chukua Umunna MP (Streatham), a key aide to Ed Miliband, would have lost their seats to Liberal Democrat rivals at the last election.

In her role as spokesperson for the Yes to AV campaign, Tessa Jowell has said "politics will be improved" by the new system.

Many former Liberal Democrat MPs ousted at the last election would have retained their seat, including Lembit Öpik (formerly MP for Montgomeryshire).

Many first time Conservative MPs would have lost out.

New Conservative members who fought marginal seats at the last election, including Jacob Rees-Mogg MP (Somerset NE) and Louise Bageshawe MP (Corby), would not be sitting in parliament today had the last election been fought under AV.

The Telegraph has also analysed how AV would affect each of the parties based on current opinion polls.

Despite support for the Lib Dems dropping to only 11 per cent today, they would only stand to lose 5 seats, while the Conservatives would lose 89 in a landslide election win for the Labour Party.

Methodology

This new analysis suggests the result of the 2010 general election would have resulted in the Labour Party gaining more seats than the Conservative Party, using predictions for second and third preferences.

Voting assumptions (the likely distribution of second, third and subsequent voting preferences) were calculated using a recent survey by YouGov (PDF link) asking participants how they would rank the parties in your order of preference if a new Alternative Vote electoral system was introduced.

Many previous analyses, which suggest there would be no change in result in the 2010 general election, were based on notions of links between political parties instead of data on the second, third and subsequent preferences.

These voting assumptions are applied to the current political make-up of the country using a mathematical predictor devised by Edmund Harriss, a British mathematician and visiting professor in the Mathematics Department of the University of Arkansas.

The hypothetical alternative vote 2011 general election and First past the post 2011 general election results use the 29 April 2011 poll-of-polls for voting intention from UKPollingReport.

Map built using Google Fusion Tables, inspired by The Texas Tribune.