Asia | South Korea

Bulldozer shoved aside

The race to succeed the president gets under way

|SEOUL

TO FOREIGNERS, South Korea's president, Lee Myung-bak, has done a decent job. Hosting the 2010 G20 summit raised his profile. Squaring up to North Korea ensured his reputation as a bulldozer travelled beyond the demilitarised zone.

But back home, his time is running out. His poll ratings are plunging; only 28% think he is doing a good job. Presidents have only one term and elections are due in 2012. Jockeying between the ruling Grand National Party (GNP) and opposition Democratic Party has elbowed aside all other debate. Each has a strong contender to win the presidential Blue House.

The GNP's main hopeful is Park Geun-hye, a former party chairwoman and daughter of President Park Chung-hee, the military strongman whose combination of authoritarianism and growth continues to divide Korean society. Ms Park is popular among those who remember “the good old days”. But she must be careful not to upset those who remember them for their widespread repression (even President Lee was briefly jailed back then).

Ms Park lost the nomination to Mr Lee in 2007 and since then she and her loyalists have butted heads with the government. Despite serving recently as the president's special envoy in Europe, she keeps her distance. Her block increases the threat of defeat in the National Assembly for Mr Lee. This, combined with his slumping popularity, has led some to describe him as a lame duck.

The main policy difference between the two is over how to distribute the rewards of growth. Ms Park wants what she calls “Korean-style welfare”. It is not clear what that means, but the mere mention of the W-word incenses free-market supporters of the president, who fling back charges of populism.

Rising income inequality has made Ms Park's message more attractive than that of the Lee camp, which is splintering. Assembly members from Seoul and Gyeonggi province, worried about losing their seats next year, are beginning to distance themselves from the unpopular president.

Ms Park's main opponent looks likely to be Sohn Hak-kyu. His support among core Democratic Party voters is weak: he defected to them from the GNP only in 2007. But he has proven electoral appeal, having wrested control of the traditionally conservative Bundang constituency in a by-election in April. None of his main party rivals can say as much.

Mr Sohn's DP has a slight lead over the GNP, according to Realmeter, a polling firm. This reflects the unpopularity of the government. But as attention shifts towards the presidential horse race, the parties will start to matter less. Realmeter puts Ms Park 12 points ahead of Mr Sohn.

Opinion in South Korea is notoriously fickle, as those who remember Roh Moo-hyun's upset victory in 2002 will attest. Chung Mong-joon, who backed Mr Roh at the last minute in that election and now plies his trade with the GNP, announced his own candidacy this week. He is guaranteed to fight a colourful campaign but is unlikely to win. For the moment, even though the GNP is divided, Park Geun-hye is the favourite to fill her father's shoes.

This article appeared in the Asia section of the print edition under the headline "Bulldozer shoved aside"

A beatable president

From the June 11th 2011 edition

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