Mass Media and Civil War Onset
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1) The document presents a theory that mass media can have non-linear effects on civil war onset, strengthening states above a critical threshold of media density but increasing risks below that threshold. 2) Analysis of cross-national data finds a positive correlation between media density and civil war onset for countries below the 20th percentile of media density, but a negative correlation above. 3) Changes in global TV density are positively associated with the number of civil war onsets in a given year, helping to explain the rise of civil wars since the 1960s.
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Mass Media and Civil War Onset
- 1. Mass Media and Civil War Onset Article: j.mp/media_civil_war Slides: j.mp/media_war_slides Justin Murphy, PhD Assistant Professor Department of Politics and IR University of Southampton jmrphy.net @jmrphy
- 2. Overview • The Puzzle • A Theory of Non-Linear Media Effects • Hypotheses • Data and Method • Findings • Implications and Conclusion
- 3. The Puzzle • It is widely argued that mass media play a role in the outbreak of civil wars (Brass 1997; Des Forges 1999; Gagnon Jr 1994; Kellow and Steeves 1998; Metzl 1997; Tambiah 1996). • But there is also evidence that mass media strengthen the state and pacify potential challengers (Anderson 1983; Deutsch 1953; Warren 2014). • How can we square these contradictory findings?
- 4. A Theory of Non-Linear Media Effects • A system of mass communications will strengthen a state because it generates a unique economy of scale (Warren 2014). • The key of my argument is that this should only take effect beyond some critical threshold of media density. • Before that threshold, each increase in media density encourages insurgency by increasing the payoffs of taking state power before mass communications are achieved.
- 5. Hypotheses At the cross-national historical level (unit is the country-year): 1. There should exist some threshold of mass media density below which there is a positive correlation between mass media and civil war onset and above which there is a negative correlation. At the international level (unit is global system in each year): 2. The mean level of media density should have a negative correlation with civil war prevalence but year-to-year changes in media density should be associated with an increase in civil war prevalence.
- 6. Data and Method • Cross-national time-series data on civil war onset (Sambanis 2004) and mass media density from Arthur Banks and World Bank (Warren 2014). • Unbalanced panel of 175 countries over a maximum of 55 years in the period from 1945 to1999. • Semi-parametric logistic regression (a general additive model) fits mass media density to civil war onset with a nonparametric smooth. • Traditional parametric logistic regressions for more convenient effect estimates. • For the international level hypothesis, negative binomial models for the count of total onsets in each year, using TV as the key independent variable.
- 7. The Non-Linear Effect of Media Density on Civil War Onset 0 1 2 3 4 5 −4−3−2−101 logmdi s(logmdi,2.56)
- 8. Effect of Mass Media Density on Civil War Onset for All Countries
- 9. Effect of Mass Media Density on Civil War Onset for Countries < 20th Percentile of Media Density
- 10. Effect of Change in the Global Mean of TV Density on Number of Civil War Onsets
- 11. Conclusion • These findings suggest a crucial revision to our current understanding of the role played by media in civil war onset. • The introduction and early growth of mass media appears to significantly increase the probability of observing a civil war within a particular country. • The global growth of mass media technologies since the 1960s helps explain the dramatic rise of civil wars in this period. • Thank you and feel free to get in touch. • Website: http://jmrphy.net • Twitter: @jmrphy • Article: j.mp/media_civil_war • Slides: j.mp/media_war_slides