Thursday, November 17, 2011

Wailing And Gnashing Of Teeth From Erick Erickson

Erick Erickson doesn't like how the Republican nomination process is falling out so far. And I can't say I blame him. The Republicans are displaying the same sort of problem the Democrats displayed in the 80's: a weak bench. The reasons differ: Democrats relied too heavily on the regulatory state and the courts in the 80's, whereas the Republicans currently rely too heavily on big business.

In a democracy, however, the best leaders generally come through the legislature. Obama, for example, came through the Illinois legislature. But among the GOP, respect for the legislative process is at an ebb. Respect for outsiders, businessmen in particular, is quite high (e.g., Herman Cain). But outsiders generally don't know enough to get the job done.

The last really successful outside leader was General Eisenhower. Above all, Ike respected people who got things done. Ike liked empire-building businessmen: it was analogous to breaking Nazi Germany the way Ike had done. That's one reason Ike had such disdain for his own VP, Richard Nixon: he couldn't figure out exactly what Nixon had ever really done with his life. The same problem the GOP primary voters face when trying to gauge Romney, Gingrich, Paul, Bachmann, Santorum, etc. Who are these folks, anyway? But Ike could respect legislative work.

Active legislators get things done in a democracy, but who can remember any laws connected with the GOP field? They've been distracted by the lights and fury of the stage - by TV, by money, by applause. That's not where it's at, though.

So, things will probably get worse before they get better, but that's life in a democracy:
Mitt Romney is going to be the Republican nominee. And his general election campaign will be an utter disaster for conservatives as he takes the GOP down with him and burns up what it means to be a conservative in the process.

...Mitt Romney will be the nominee because the other candidates, right now, are a pretty pathetic lot.

The base will not forgive Rick Perry his immigration sins. In fact, that has hurt him far more than his debate performances, but his debate performances have hurt him badly. Perry, who came out principled and fiery with a record others could only envy, has left others with the impression that he’s a poor man’s version of the village idiot, which in the SEC we call “Aggies”. Maybe he can turn it around.

Newt Gingrich will not be the nominee because, despite his daughter’s rebuttals to the horror stories of how Gingrich divorced his first of three wives, Jackie Gingrich told the Washington Post on January 3, 1985, “He walked out in the spring of 1980 and I returned to Georgia. By September, I went into the hospital for my third surgery. The two girls came to see me, and said Daddy is downstairs and could he come up? When he got there, he wanted to discuss the terms of the divorce while I was recovering from the surgery.”

Gingrich went on to cheat on the second wife with the third. Regardless of the actual facts or even the spin, he won’t win women.

Herman Cain won’t be the nominee because he can’t win women either. Regardless of what you think of the Politico story, Cain’s handling of the story has been an epic disaster. He’s down at least 10 points with women in Iowa. He’s falling even further and doesn’t even realize it. He’s largely been emboldened by a conservative media that is so used to standing by its men that too few are telling Herman that he is now at the point where he must actually sit and answer questions whether he wants to or not and whether he feels maligned or not and whether I think he should have to or not. If he loses women by as big as he is starting to lose the women, he cannot win.

So Mitt Romney will be the nominee. Conservatives will not rally together with the least of the bad alternatives and Romney, like John McCain before him, will run up the middle to the nomination. But, just like McCain, Romney will not beat Barack Obama.

...I’ve been reading the 200 pages of single spaced opposition research from the John McCain campaign on Mitt Romney. There is no issue I can find on which Mitt Romney has not taken both sides. He is neither liberal nor conservative. He is simply unprincipled. The man has no core beliefs other than in himself. You want him to be tough? He’ll be tough. You want him to be sensitive? He’ll be sensitive. You want him to be for killing the unborn? He’ll go all in on abortion rights until he wants to run for an office where it is not in his advantage.

...To beat Barack Obama, a candidate must paint a bold contrast with the Democrats on their policies. When Mitt Romney tries, Barack Obama will be able to show that just the other day Mitt Romney held exactly the opposite position as the one he holds today.

Voters may not like Barack Obama, but by the time Obama is done with Romney they will not trust Mitt Romney. And voters would rather the guy they don’t like than they guy they don’t trust.

...It is striking to me that in 2012 there is broad based popular angst against Wall Street and Washington and the Republican Party is on the verge of nominating a multi-millionaire scion of the Rockefeller Wing of the Republican Party whose closest encounters with the common man are accidentally touching one of the many hired hands in one of the many rooms of one of his many mansions. But then many of the DC-NYC Republican “conservatives” who support Romney are the same, only coming into contact with regular people when they are served their breakfast by a steward in the first class car on the Acela Express.

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