REPORT

TO: FILE
FROM: Stephen Michael Kellat
IN RE: 2014 General Election
Date: November 4, 2014

Unofficial numbers for all precincts were released by the Ashtabula County Board of Elections as of 9:23 PM. The unofficial turnout was 43.94% which means that 26,952 ballots were counted from 61,332 possible eligible voters. Not included in this count are provisional ballots, of which number 326, as well as currently unaccounted for absentee ballots, of which number approximately 600. Even though a large chunk of provisional ballots may be accounted for by people changing their minds either after voting absentee or throwing out their absentee ballot, we shall treat the two numbers as discrete for the purpose of this analysis.

We shall use as our “margin of uncertainty” the rounded figure of 1,000. When we refer to a “margin of uncertainty”, we refer to ballots that are unaccounted for in the unofficial election night totals. When a margin of victory or failure for an issue is at or below that margin of uncertainty, no true result can be considered available until the canvas later this month.

In this instance we shall focus first on Issue 3, the .5 mill levy for the Ashtabula County Metroparks. The stakes were high for this issue as failure would have meant the district potentially collapsing into insolvency in the middle of calendar year 2015. Unofficial results put the levy at passage. Votes in favor were 14,063. Votes against were 12,376. The margin of victory was 1,687 which puts this safely beyond the “margin of uncertainty”. There should not be a need to wait for the final results in the official canvas to confirm this.

Also at stake in this race relative to the metroparks was the open race for the office of Probate Judge. The county's Probate Judge is the appointing authority for members of the metroparks board. The candidates running were lawyer Christopher Altier and Ashtabula Municipal Court Judge Albert Camplese. Mr. Altier received 11,015 votes. Judge Camplese received 13,272 votes. As Judge Camplese won by a margin of 2,257 it is safe to say that the result need not wait for the official canvas.

Section 1545.211 of the Ohio Revised Code allows the metroparks to issue “Revenue Anticipation Notes” to secure money in light of levy passage. The time is not ripe for such action, though. The board should consult its counsel as to the mechanics of doing this.

For the sake of reference in the event anybody calls up the question of district dissolution under Section 1545.35 of the Ohio Revised Code, the unofficial number of votes cast in Ashtabula County for Governor was 26,097. While that is expected to change by the time of the official canvas, the 25% signature threshold to be secured would therefore sit at 6,525. The prior vote total as per the 2010 gubernatorial election was 29,748 which gave a threshold of 7,437.

To turn then to localizing the results, it is important to consider where the levy did not succeed by precinct. The following precincts did not pass the levy in their individual vote totals:

        Precinct                       Y      N

0012 012 ASHTABULA CITY 3D             48    54

0022 022 CONNEAUT CITY 1B              74    97

0041 041 ANDOVER VILLAGE               93   122

0042 042 ANDOVER TWP 1                107   132

0043 043 ANDOVER TWP 2                 97   126

0052 052 CHERRY VALLEY TWP             92   133

0053 053 COLEBROOK TWP                 99   151

0054 054 DENMARK TWP                   93   118

0055 055 DORSET TWP                   100   145

0057 057 GENEVA TWP 1                 158   238

0058 058 GENEVA TWP 2                 107   139

0059 059 GENEVA TWP 3                  79    80

0063 063 HARTSGROVE TWP               142   284

0068 068 JEFFERSON TWP 2               91    99

0072 072 LENOX TWP 1                  118   140

0074 074 MONROE TWP 1                 130   203

0075 075 MONROE TWP 2                 110   199

0078 078 NEW LYME TWP                 134   184

0083 083 ORWELL TWP                   138   209

0084 084 PIERPONT TWP                 142   188

0087 087 RICHMOND TWP                  90   132

0089 089 ROME TWP                     116   153

0098 098 SHEFFIELD TWP 1              112   117

0099 099 SHEFFIELD TWP 2              129   159

0100 100 TRUMBULL TWP                 205   256

0101 101 WAYNE TWP                     62   110

0102 102 WILLIAMSFIELD TWP 1           62    97

0103 103 WILLIAMSFIELD TWP 2           83   120

0104 104 WINDSOR TWP                  156   224

It is appropriate to identify these areas. Windsor, Wayne, Trumbull, Richmond, Pierpont, Orwell, New Lyme, Dorset, Denmark, Cherry Valley, and Colebrook Townships are all unincorporated areas that are single precincts. Williamsfield, Sheffield, and Monroe Townships are all unincorporated areas that are each divided into two precincts apiece. Geneva Township is the unincorporated area exclusive of the City of Geneva and the Village of Geneva-on-the-Lake and is divided into 3 precincts while also having its own Township Park Commission. Andover Township is divided into 2 precincts and is the unincorporated territory not part of Andover Village.

A map for Ashtabula City 3-D is available at http://www.voterfind.com/ashtabulaoh/pdf/precmap/012.pdf and is generally the area near Station Avenue, GO Ministries, and the former Community Action Agency offices west of US Route 20.

A map for Conneaut City 1-B is available at http://www.voterfind.com/ashtabulaoh/pdf/precmap/022.pdf and is generally an area bounded by US Route 20, Middle Road, State Line Road, and Hatches Corners.

A map for Jefferson Township 2 is available at http://www.voterfind.com/ashtabulaoh/pdf/precmap/068.pdf and is generally an area bounded by Ohio Route 46, Ohio Route 167, Brown Road, and a line just north of Griggs Road.

A map for Lenox Township 1 is available at http://www.voterfind.com/ashtabulaoh/pdf/precmap/072.pdf for review.

Congratulations are in order tonight for the Ashtabula County Metroparks on levy passage.