Donald Trump needs China trade deal or war to beat Joe Biden in 2020 presidential election, research shows
- Guotai Junan Securities studied US elections since 1870, and predict incumbent Donald Trump currently has a 30 per cent chance of winning a re-election
- But cooperation with China on the phase one trade deal, or a military conflict, will take his chances of beating Democratic nominee Joe Biden to over 50 per cent
US President Donald Trump needs China’s cooperation on the phase one trade deal, or a military conflict, to take his chances of winning re-election later this year to over 50 per cent, a Chinese investment brokerage has concluded after conducting modelling research using data since 1870.
Led by Hua Changchun, a Shenzhen-based economist at the Guotai Junan Securities, the research claims Trump currently has only a 30 per cent chance of being re-elected in November against Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden having studied previous US presidential elections.
“Trump may take extreme measures. He could either expand international cooperation, such as pressing China to buy American commodities in bulk, to help jobs and the economy, or he can opt for extreme military conflicts,” Hua said.
According to a Ipsos/Reuters poll released last week, former vice-president Biden leads Trump 48 per cent to 35 per cent, while a CNN/SSRS poll conducted at the start of June has the Democratic nominee leading the incumbent 55 per cent to 41 per cent.
China’s purchase of American goods is important [for the US economy], just as the US domestic stimulus measures
“China’s purchase of American goods is important [for the US economy], just as the US domestic stimulus measures,” Hua added. “If Trump decides to take this approach of enhancing global cooperation, it would be a big boost for the global economy and markets.”
Navarro later claimed his comments were “taken widely out of context” and that the phase one trade deal “continues in place”, while Trump also tweeted: “The China Trade Deal is fully intact. Hopefully they will continue to live up to the terms of the Agreement!”
The link between Trump chances of re-election and the trade deal with China were also revealed in a new book by his former national security adviser John Bolton, who cited an incident in Osaka in June 2019 where Trump pleaded with Chinese President Xi Jinping.
Trump “stressed the importance of farmers and increased Chinese purchases of soybeans and wheat in the electoral outcome,” according to an excerpt of The Room Where It Happened published by The Wall Street Journal last week.
I don’t know where this war could take place, but I am worried that the war could happen around China
Premier Li Keqiang also included the trade deal implementation in the 2020 government work report.
In another scenario suggested by Guotai Junan Securities, Trump could pull the US into a military conflict to boost his chances of re-election, with the research showing an incumbent can receive a boost of 41 percentage points.
“I don’t know where this war could take place, but I am worried that the war could happen around China,” Hua said.
