For a couple of decades, Vaclav Smil has been on my go-to list when questions arise about global trends and risks, and particularly about energy. He is a distinguished professor on the environment faculty at the University of Manitoba but really should be in the department of everything. He rarely can be found anywhere other than Manitoba or Japan, so I jumped at the chance to do an hourlong interview with him at a festival of science and technology organized by the Perimeter Institute for Theoretical Physics over the weekend.
His rapid-fire mind allowed us to fit in a long list of issues, from the ebbing and surging of China’s power over the centuries to the merits of Honda Civics and a low-meat diet, from the persistent threat of terrorism and nuclear war to what he says is the fantasy of capturing and burying carbon dioxide from coal combustion at a scale the atmosphere might notice. Below I’ve listed a menu of subjects with the relevant time on the video (minutes:seconds). I guarantee you won’t agree with everything Dr. Smil says (as per this deepclimate.org critique), but I also guarantee it’s worth the time to have a listen.
7:30: On Japan’s less wasteful ways:
They waste everything less, less food, less energy. So if the whole world wants to eat like Japan it’s still dicey but kind of doable, But if the world wants to replicate the two biggest wasters in the world, the U.S. and Canada, there is no hope for anybody.
8:40: There are two durable camps out there, those who warn that humanity has overshot and is destined to crash, like Wile E. Coyote over the cliff, and those who insist that the human traits of innovation and adaptation will get us through. Who’s right?
People want to have it not so messy, but both are true…. We keep redefining resources all the time…. On the other hand, we have news like GM is unloading Hummer onto who, the Chinese.
20:00: If everyone lived like North Americans:
We are raising these expectations. We are saying you could be like us…. So 5 percent consume 25 percent. If the rest of the world will do the same thing what will we do? Five planets. This is a very simple calculation.
21:55: Is climate change the biggest pinch point, or are other issues more pressing?
This is unfolding slowly. This is not going to be with us in full force — nobody claims it, even the orthodox people, in 2015. But in between there are a great many things coming in between…. The pandemic is number one. We are overdue….
28:00: Overconsumption, especially in North America, has only exploded in the last 40 years. Japan and France, for example, consume half as much energy per capita and more of it goes into making products.
Most of the energy in North America is just consuming — Wal-Mart, shopping centers, government offices — or personal consumption: houses, cars, flying to Hawaii, gambling in Las Vegas…. We could live affluent lifestyles with half as much energy. Are people so unhappy in Kyoto or Lyons? Is it such a terrible punishment to live in Bordeaux?
33:10: Can we outgrow growth?
It’s doable but doable only by catastrophe and crisis. People will not voluntarily abandon their Hummers…. It will happen eventually. It will have to happen because of the economic squeeze or strategic squeeze or the Chinese squeeze, but voluntarily the chance of it is very slim.
40:00 He provides a reality check, using simple calculations, on whether carbon dioxide from coal burning can be captured at a scale remotely applicable to the climate challenge.
If you get a chance to listen in, what statements by Dr. Smil strike you as powerful or wrong, and why?